On-chain analytics show Bitcoin holders with 1,000–10,000 BTC have shifted from aggressive accumulation to net selling. Their one-year holdings swung from a gain of roughly 200,000 BTC at the 2024 bull peak to a net loss of about 188,000 BTC today, with the 365-day trend trending down — a sign of structural, not just short-term, distribution.
Broader spot demand is contracting despite ETF inflows and corporate buys. Thirty-day apparent demand stands at -63,000 BTC, meaning retail and mid-tier selling still outweigh institutional purchases. Mid-tier holders (100–1,000 BTC) continue to accumulate but far more slowly: their one-year growth fell from about 1 million BTC last October to roughly 429,000 BTC now. Smaller “dolphin” wallets remain net buyers year-over-year, but their buying pace is fading. U.S. demand has softened, with the Coinbase Premium stuck negative even as prices trade in the $65,000–$70,000 range.
Analyst PlanB noted Bitcoin closed March at $68,215 with an RSI of 44 and expects a test of the 200-week moving average near $59,000 and the realized price around $54,000 before the next sustained leg higher, which he still projects toward $250,000–$1 million in future cycles.
At press time Bitcoin was down 1.06% over 24 hours to $67,397.28, underperforming the broader crypto market amid geopolitical tensions and renewed institutional selling. BTC shows strong correlation with macro assets — about 96% with the S&P 500 and 92% with Gold — indicating a macro-driven, risk-off move.
Technically and on-chain, price sits below key moving averages amid whale distribution. A break below $64,971 could trigger a deeper correction, while holding above the $66,226–$66,500 support zone may allow a relief bounce toward $68,500 resistance.