Large Bitcoin holders accumulated 61,568 BTC over the past month amid rising conflict in the Middle East and broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Santiment said whales and sharks (addresses holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) increased their holdings by 0.45% over the month, while tiny wallets holding under 0.01 BTC added 0.42%, or about 213 BTC.
The data align with persistent Bitcoin exchange outflows through March, suggesting holders are moving coins off exchanges to accumulate rather than sell. Santiment noted that whale accumulation could be a “promising sign” of an eventual breakout from the current range, adding that historically an upward break often occurs when large wallets accumulate while retail sells—an indicator that has reliably signaled the start of bull cycles.
Tensions in the Middle East escalated in February after the U.S. and Israel struck targets in Iran; Iran retaliated against neighboring countries and the conflict has continued, affecting markets. On March 19, two whales moved tens of millions of dollars’ worth of BTC to exchanges as prices fell and energy costs rose following attacks on Gulf oil and gas infrastructure.
Dominick John, an analyst at Zeus Research, said the whales accumulating quietly are likely positioning for a potential breakout, while small wallets chase momentum driven by FOMO. He noted whales tend to buy in waves, so accumulation could persist if the range holds and macro conditions remain supportive; however, overheated retail FOMO could prompt a pause or a slight sell-off before further accumulation.
Investor sentiment remains cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index returned a score of 13 on Friday, in “extreme fear.” Thursday’s reading was 10, and both the prior week and the month of February averaged “extreme fear,” according to the index.
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