Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to an intraday high of $68,300 during early Asian trading on Tuesday as whale selling eased. Selling in derivatives also relaxed, suggesting bearish positioning is becoming less aggressive, according to recent analysis.
Key takeaways:
– Large BTC deposits to Binance have fallen sharply, signaling reduced selling pressure.
– Analysts view the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at $59,430 as a key support level for BTC.
Bitcoin whale selling slows down
CryptoQuant exchange data showed a shift in large-player behavior, with whale Bitcoin deposits declining across major exchanges. When Bitcoin fell to $60,000 in early February, whales were very active on Binance, sending as much as 11,800 BTC to the exchange in a single day. By the end of February, the 30-day moving average (MA) of BTC inflows to Binance rose to nearly 4,000 BTC daily, reflecting pronounced distribution from large holders, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said.
Since then the situation has cooled: the 30-day MA is around 1,600 BTC daily to Binance. Darkfost noted this decrease could indicate a short-term slowdown in selling pressure, with large players adopting a wait-and-see approach in an uncertain market environment.
The figures align with data showing whales and sharks accumulating over the past two months, a pattern that could set up an eventual breakout from the range. The decline in whale deposits coincided with a large exchange net position change: a fall of 89,710 BTC on March 26, the biggest spike since December 2024, Glassnode reported. The 30-day change of supply held in exchange wallets was -68,650 BTC at the time of writing—outflows that typically indicate strong accumulation and reduced immediate sell-side pressure.
Glassnode also reported that perpetual cumulative volume delta (CVD) rose by 38.1% over the past week to -$361 million from -$583 million, signaling a decrease in sell-side pressure. While still negative, the move suggests bearish positioning is easing and buyer participation is beginning to recover.
200-week trend line becomes key for BTC price
Analysts caution the downside may not be over, with several indicators pointing to Bitcoin entering the “later stages” of a bear market. Traders have shifted focus to the 200-week SMA at $59,430, now seen as Bitcoin’s last line of defense.
Holding above this level has historically preceded significant recoveries—after the 2018 bear market and the 2020 COVID-19 crash—while losing it could trigger another downward leg, as occurred during the 2022 drawdown. Crypto Patel noted that Bitcoin remains above the 200-week moving average (around $59,000) and called it the same level that confirmed every bull cycle in history: “As long as $BTC holds this line, every dip is a gift.”
Analyst Anup Dhungana said the 200-week MA at $59K is the primary support to watch after Bitcoin confirmed a bear-flag breakdown.
As reported by Cointelegraph, Bitcoin’s next major support sits at $60,000–$62,000; losing that zone could see a deeper correction toward $41,000, the measured target of a bear flag on the daily chart.
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