Bitcoin (BTC) still needs a “major bullish catalyst” to prevent its March rally from being negated, according to the latest market analysis.
Key points:
– Short-term BTC strength does not eliminate the risk that the bear market continues.
– Significant overhead resistance sits in the mid-$70,000s.
– A weekly “death cross” formed by two moving averages is on track to confirm this week.
BTC price caught between multiple trend lines
Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, said in an X update that BTC weakness extends beyond lower time frames. Bitcoin reached monthly highs of $73,019 at the Wall Street open amid renewed Middle East conflict, fueling bullish calls and talk of new all-time highs. Alan, however, emphasized caution.
“This is an important candle to watch on the $BTC chart,” he wrote. “On the surface, we’re seeing a short squeeze. From a technical perspective, this D candle is attempting to validate R/S flips at the 21-Day SMA, the 2021 top at $69k, and a Timescape level at $71.3k.”
Alan highlighted several key levels near the spot price: the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) around $67,550, the 50-day SMA near $76,350, and longer-term trend lines—the 21-week and 100-day SMAs—around $88,000 and $87,300 respectively.
“If bulls can push price up from here I expect some friction around psychological resistance ~$75k, technical resistance at the 50-Day MA, and the next Timescape level at $78.3k,” he added. “A support test, sooner than later, would be healthy, but I’m not sure that the market is going to make it that easy on us. However this develops, IMO, the longer it takes to grind up, the more durable the rally will likely be.”
Bitcoin death cross still due this weekly candle
Longer-term expectations for the current bear market still favor a bottom at or below roughly $50,000. Alan warned that downside could return as soon as next week due to a looming death cross between the 21-week and 100-week SMAs.
A death cross—when a shorter-term moving average crosses below a longer-term one—signals that recent price action has weakened relative to the longer trend. “The caveat to that is the simple fact that next week we will print a death cross between the 21 and 100 Week MAs, and that will likely be a precursor to the next leg down unless we get a major bullish catalyst,” he concluded.
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