Bitcoin (BTC) has endured a roughly 14-month bear market versus gold, with the BTC/gold ratio and momentum indicators hitting historic lows that have previously coincided with cycle bottoms.
Key takeaways:
– The BTC/GOLD ratio sits at historic lows as multiple indicators point to a potential cycle bottom.
– Bitcoin must hold the $68,000–$70,000 zone to avoid a deeper drop in the weeks ahead.
BTC/GOLD RSI, MACD print classic reversal signal
TradingView data shows the BTC/GOLD ratio’s relative strength index (RSI) has begun climbing after reaching an oversold weekly low of 21 in mid-February, signaling fading bearish momentum. The RSI has recovered to 33. At the same time, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) has fallen to its lowest level historically and is nearing a bullish cross.
Previous instances where the RSI recovered from deeply oversold levels and the MACD produced a buy signal marked macro bottoms for the ratio, preceding BTC breakouts of roughly 280%–620% in 2019, 2021, and 2023. The last bottom versus gold in November 2022 preceded a roughly 700% Bitcoin rally to a reported peak of $126,000.
Analysts at GeoMetric note the past three BTC/GOLD bear markets lasted 12–14 months with drawdowns between 75% and 84%. About 13 months have elapsed in the current cycle, which has declined about 81%, surpassing the 2021 bear market. They say there is a solid case for a potential bottom here.
Technical analyst James Easto said, “Bottom is in for $BTC vs Gold,” and investor-analyst Crypto Fergani summarized the recurring pattern: Bitcoin tends to enter a roughly 400-day bear market against gold, during which the RSI falls into deeply oversold territory — phases that historically have marked the bottom.
Bitcoin price must hold above $70,000
BTC/USD remains cautiously bullish while it holds the $68,000–$70,000 support band, where the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day simple moving average sit. The 200-week EMA is a key support in bear markets, and its reliability could be tested on weekly closes.
Analyst AlphaBTC said he expects Bitcoin to rebound toward $80,000 before potentially dropping toward $50,000, provided the weekly low around $68,800 is not lost: “I don’t want to see this week’s low lost, otherwise it’s going to break back down to range lows or lower!”
Holding $70,000 would align with prior fractal recoveries and could open a move toward $76,000–$80,000, while a break below the key weekly support would raise the risk of a deeper retracement.
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