Market analysts say Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent push to $76,000 marks a clear momentum shift and confirms a short-term uptrend for BTC/USD.
Glassnode data shows short-term holder (STH) supply in profit — the share of recently acquired coins held at an unrealized gain — indicates the bear market rally has not yet exhausted itself. Historically, local tops in bear-market rallies tend to form when this metric nears its statistical mean of 54.2%, a level where enough profitable STHs exist to drive material distribution. At 43.2% today, STH supply in profit remains “meaningfully below that threshold, suggesting the present rally has not yet reached the zone of typical exhaustion,” Glassnode said in its Week Onchain newsletter, adding: “This leaves slight room for further upside toward the True Market Mean, while also providing a quantitative level to monitor as price advances.”
Analyst McKenna noted Bitcoin is still in “deep under extension territory” relative to its 50-week simple moving average (SMA). Markets that diverge strongly from their mean typically revert, and with momentum shifts and bullish trends now evident, McKenna said she would be directionally bullish. She added: “BTC breaking above $74K and holding this level on a HTF is the final trigger I want to see to be confident in mid to high 80s over the coming weeks.”
Bitcoin Archive highlighted the falling U.S. dollar index as a “massive tailwind for the next leg up” for Bitcoin. Multiple onchain and market metrics — rising network activity and an improving technical setup among them — also support the case for further upside.
Onchain data points to key price levels to watch. From its $126,000 all-time high, Bitcoin has seen a 41% drawdown. That decline pushed BTC/USD beneath several important levels: the active realized price at $85,100, the STH cost basis at $80,950, and the true market mean at $78,140. At $74,000, BTC sits about 5.2% below the true market mean, a metric tracking the cost basis of active supply. While price has not yet tested and stabilized above that threshold, Glassnode said the probability of a spike toward and potentially above it remains considerable in the mid-term.
Cost-basis distribution reinforces the significance of the $78,000 area: over 200,000 BTC were acquired around that price. On the downside, immediate major support sits at $72,000, where the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages converge and where roughly 220,000 BTC changed hands. Below that, the $65,000–$70,000 demand zone is a crucial area; it previously acted as a foundation during the October–November 2024 period and helped power the October 2024–January 2025 rally.
A drop under $70,000 would indicate bears regaining control and would raise the chances of a decline toward $60,000.
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