Bitcoin is approaching its 200-week moving averages, a long-term support zone traders say could help define a potential BTC price floor.
Key points:
– Bitcoin is nearing a long-term trendline retest for the first time since late 2023.
– Weekly moving averages are on the radar as a BTC price safety net should the market fall again.
– Market outlooks place emphasis on trader resilience despite a 40% drawdown.
BTC 200-week trend line “should be the bottom”
Analysis increasingly expects Bitcoin to test its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) around $68,400. After four straight red monthly candles, BTC has fresh downside targets, including sub-$50,000 levels. Despite dropping to its lowest levels since late 2024 this week, classic support trend lines may ultimately rescue BTC/USD.
“We’re currently trading at Strategy’s cost basis & are close [to] the April lows at $74.4k. If we break below, the next key level is $70k which is just above the previous ATH of $69k,” Nic Puckrin, CEO of Coin Bureau, wrote in an X post. He added: “Breaking below that means we head to a bear market low target. The area to watch here $55.7k – $58.2k. That’s just between the average realised price of all coins & the 200w MA. That should be the bottom.”
Puckrin referenced the 200-week simple moving average (SMA), which—with the EMA equivalent—forms roughly a $10,000-wide support band, per TradingView data.
Trader Altcoin Sherpa said it would “make sense” for the price to drop to at least the 200-week EMA: “on 1 hand it makes sense for $BTC to tap the 200W EMA, an indicator that hasn’t been touched since 2023. This would be around 68k. On the other, this is still an interesting level as the 2025 low. Either way, the bottom is closer than we think imo.”
Trader BitBull noted a recurring pattern: “Every time Bitcoin has lost 100W EMA, it has retested the 200W EMA. Right now, 200W EMA is at $68,000 and this will most likely be retested. Once the retest happens, you could start accumulating for the long-term.”
Bitcoin investors resist full capitulation
Other market notes offer some reassurance to worried investors. Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, argued that the current “crypto winter” would soon be over, saying retail crypto has been in a brutal winter since January 2025 and noting the historical average winter length is about 14 months.
Cointelegraph has also reported strong conviction among Bitcoin derivatives traders despite a drawdown of more than 40%. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen net outflows of $3.2 billion since mid-January — roughly 3% of their total assets under management — suggesting limited institutional withdrawal relative to total holdings (source: Glassnode).
This mix of technical support around the 200-week moving averages and signs of investor resilience underpins the view among some analysts and traders that a macro BTC bottom may be defined near the 200-week trendlines.
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