Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin reclaimed $68,000 as President Trump hinted at ending the Iran war even if the Strait of Hormuz remained partly closed.
– Derivatives show high fear: put options trade at a premium and demand for bullish leveraged positions is low.
Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $68,000 on Monday after gains in the S&P 500 following US President Donald Trump’s suggestion the administration may pursue ways to end the US–Israel–Iran conflict without fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the price strength, derivatives metrics show traders remain cautious and bearish, signaling little confidence that $66,000 will hold.
A brief dip to $66,000 coincided with Google research claims that the elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem (ECDLP) might be cracked with 20 times less quantum computing power. Traders quickly noted that the entangled logical physical qubits required for a practical attack remain far beyond current equipment.
The annualized premium on monthly Bitcoin futures versus spot markets was around 2% on Tuesday, unchanged from the prior week. Readings below 4% typically indicate weak demand for bullish leverage, since longs usually pay a premium for longer settlement. Even a rally above $71,000 on Wednesday failed to generate sustained bullish conviction.
Bitcoin’s price has held above $66,000 for the past week while the S&P 500 hit a seven-month low on Monday and crude oil surged above $100. Rising fuel costs have reduced expectations for US monetary easing: traders now assign under 10% odds of Fed rate cuts by July, down from about 75% a month ago, according to CME FedWatch data. Higher rates favor fixed-income assets, dampen consumer spending and strain corporate growth prospects, adding pressure to the US job market.
Options flow points to extreme fear. On Tuesday, Bitcoin put options traded at a 17% premium to calls — a level typically associated with significant downside concern. A balanced market usually shows a put-call skew between -6% and +6%, which last occurred in mid-January. The data suggest whales and market makers are reluctant to hold downside risk, even after Bitcoin has fallen roughly 23% in 2026.
Bitcoin’s resilience near $67,000 indicates that quantum-computing alarms were largely dismissed, but other forces may explain the muted enthusiasm. Traders may be anticipating economic stimulus amid growing recession risk; early-stage stimulus tends to lift stocks more than Bitcoin. For now, most participants still view Bitcoin as a risky asset rather than a safe haven, which helps explain the persistent bearish tone in derivatives. That said, weak demand for bullish leverage doesn’t necessarily mean traders expect a return to sub-$60,000 prices.
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research before making any decisions. Cointelegraph makes no guarantees regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information presented, including forward-looking statements, and will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from reliance on this content.