Bitcoin (BTC) faces a new macro test as markets increasingly price in a US recession in 2026.
Key points:
– Bitcoin could encounter its first recession since the COVID-19 crash.
– US recession odds are rising as BlackRock CEO Larry Fink flags oil-driven risks.
– Bitcoin remains highly correlated with “extremely oversold” stocks.
Moody’s puts 12-month recession odds near 50%
Data highlighted by Axel Adler Jr. of CryptoQuant show recession odds approaching 50%. Moody’s Analytics raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs increased its estimate to 30%. Prediction markets on Kalshi put US recession odds at 36%, the highest reading since September 2025.
The US-Iran war and its effect on global oil supplies lie at the center of the surge in recession expectations. Conflicting reports about dialogue to end hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz have roiled risk assets and kept upward pressure on oil prices. Mosaic Asset Company noted in its newsletter The Market Mosaic that oil trading about 50% above its long-term trend—now unfolding—has historically coincided with or preceded nearly every recession in the past 50 years.
Mosaic added that oil prices are closely tied to headline inflation, estimating a $10 per barrel rise can boost inflation by around 0.20% or more. Major market figures echo the concern: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink told the BBC he expects a global recession if Iran remains a threat to the global economy, even if active hostilities end.
Bitcoin stays tied to “extremely oversold” stocks
Bitcoin has limited experience of recessions in its under-20-year history. In 2020, a short US recession coincided with a crash in March, followed by substantial BTC gains later that year. This time, Bitcoin’s correlation with US stocks has strengthened, increasing the likelihood that equity-driven moves could carry BTC along.
Mosaic and other analysts point to investor sentiment and positioning that indicate excessive bearishness and breadth metrics extending to extremely oversold levels. While uncertainty around inflation and monetary policy weighs on markets, these conditions could be favorable for at least a short-term rally in risk assets, including Bitcoin, if a relief bounce occurs.
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