After a strong start to the week, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen roughly 5%, tracking declines in the S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq and gold. By contrast, crude oil has surged about 7.3% on the day and is up roughly 53% since the US–Israel–Iran conflict began on Feb. 28.
The broad weakness reflects a coordinated shift in capital as the Middle East war continues, with notable outflows from major equity ETFs underscoring a move away from risk assets. The Kobeissi Letter reported a combined $64 billion withdrawal from S&P 500 (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) ETFs over the past three months — the largest on record. That reverses a $50 billion inflow in November and represents roughly 5% of those funds’ assets under management.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have mirrored that trend, posting about $253 million in outflows over the past two days. Monthly spot-ETF flows remain positive at approximately $1.48 billion, but that sits against $6.3 billion in cumulative outflows from November through February, signaling a fragile recovery in demand.
On-chain and market data indicate limited capacity to absorb selling. Glassnode showed net realized profit-taking briefly accelerated to about $17 million per hour (24-hour average) before fading, after which BTC slid back under $70,000. Glassnode noted broader geopolitical uncertainty appears to be compressing demand depth and limiting the market’s ability to absorb even moderate realization events.
Market observers are comparing current price action to past geopolitical shocks. Crypto commentator Carlitosway highlighted parallels with the Russia–Ukraine war in 2022: after Russia’s February 24 attack, Bitcoin initially sold off, then posted a roughly 24% relief bounce over the next four weeks, only to later fall about 64% by November 2022. A similar sequence—an initial rally followed by slowing momentum—has been seen this month, with BTC rising nearly 10% at one point since the war began before the advance lost steam.
Analysts attribute the weakness to persistent liquidity pressure, rising energy costs and forced selling during stress periods, all of which undermine follow-through demand. That pattern suggests a longer stabilization phase as capital rebuilds and selling pressure dissipates.
Crypto analyst Finish suggested a recovery may follow a deeper price bottom around $55,000, adding that until the Iran-related conflict is resolved, it will likely remain difficult for BTC to resume a robust uptrend given the current risk-off environment and substantial equity market capital losses.
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