Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above $90,000, but on-chain and derivatives data show a prominent risk-off signal. CryptoQuant’s multi-metric Risk-Off oscillator sits near the “High-Risk” zone — a level that historically precedes corrections and lowers the odds of a sustained bullish trend.
Key takeaways:
– CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off reading is close to “High-Risk,” which has previously signaled bearish windows.
– BTC’s Profit–Loss score reached a rare -3 extreme, indicating an elevated concentration of unprofitable UTXOs and a structural correction signal.
– A -32% drawdown places BTC between a normal correction and full capitulation, suggesting downside pressure that could keep price action between roughly $90,000 and $80,000 for an extended period.
Bitcoin is structurally weak near $90,000
CryptoQuant’s Risk-Off model combines six inputs — downside volatility, upside volatility, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures open interest and market-cap behavior — to gauge market fragility. With the oscillator around 60 (High-Risk), the platform’s signal points to elevated correction risk.
On-chain researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted the profit/loss metric dropping to -3, reflecting an extreme share of unprofitable UTXOs. Historically, this reading has aligned with bearish regimes and lengthened cooling phases. The current -32% drawdown exceeds typical cycle pullbacks of about -20% to -25% but remains above classic capitulation thresholds of -50% to -70%, placing BTC in a vulnerable “intermediate” zone.
Adler cautioned that without improvement in macro conditions and on-chain profitability, the probability of further downside remains elevated despite recent price stabilization near $90,000.
Glassnode offered a partial positive: the latest drawdown produced the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in 2022, driven mainly by short-term holders (STHs). Long-term holder (LTH) losses are still relatively muted, a dynamic that often reflects core-holder resilience and can help limit deeper capitulation.
$100,000 is a battle between momentum and trend
A CryptoQuant analyst described BTC’s approach to $100,000 as a psychological turning point. A decisive breakout could trigger momentum — possibly aided by a Federal Reserve rate cut — but major round numbers tend to generate volatility and failed attempts as often as clean breakouts.
The growth-rate difference between market cap and realized cap remained negative, signaling market cap is shrinking faster than realized cap. With BTC near $91,000, the analyst favored structural weakness over trend expansion.
Futures trader Byzantine General highlighted choppy action at the resistance level: “$BTC is struggling a bit here at this key resistance level. If it breaks through, it could fly over 100,000 very quickly, but if it actually rejects here, then we’re probably stuck in this 92,000-82,000 range for a while.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
