Bitcoin’s recent price action suggests selling pressure may be fading, but analysts warn there’s no clear sign the bear market has ended.
10x Research said Bitcoin failed to accelerate lower on risk-off headlines, which can signal diminishing downside momentum. BTC reclaimed the 20-day moving average near $68,500 while Bollinger Bands tightened, setting up conditions for potential range expansion. The token briefly topped $70,000 on Coinbase before slipping to about $68,400. The $62,500 level has held on three tests, reinforcing it as meaningful support. Bullish divergences are emerging as RSI and stochastic indicators trend higher—early signs momentum may be stabilizing within a broader bearish structure.
The analysts called the developments a meaningful tactical shift but not a confirmed structural turn. Volatility has compressed, ETF flows have strengthened, and the Coinbase discount has disappeared—features inconsistent with a market accelerating into a new leg lower. Still, their broader allocation framework continues to classify Bitcoin as being in a bear market regime, so any bullish exposure remains tactical rather than structural.
Justin d’Anethan, head of research at Arctic Digital, said a series of macro and crypto-native events pushed prices down, but market behavior has moved “from frantic to somewhat measured,” which supports consolidation, accumulation, or a range-bound phase. He added that the muted impact of negative news suggests sellers may be exhausted or that genuine buyers are averaging in at current levels.
Bitrue research lead Andri Fauzan Adziima attributed the recent bounce largely to deeply negative funding rates in derivatives markets. Overcrowded short positions in perpetual futures and resulting liquidations triggered a classic short squeeze as price rebounded from roughly $63,000 lows, easing selling pressure through tactical relief. Negative funding rates mean short sellers pay longs to maintain positions.
Despite the bounce, Adziima said no confirmed trend reversal has occurred because structural inflows remain absent, macro catalysts are lacking, and the broader downtrend from the all-time high persists amid fragile liquidity and resistance ahead.
