Bitcoin (BTC) rallied to $70,000 on Monday amid escalating Middle East tensions. Data from CryptoQuant shows short-term holder (STH) losses sent to exchanges fell to a two-week low, in contrast to the heavy selling seen in early February.
Bitcoin short-term sellers step back
The STH profit/loss (P&L) to exchanges metric measures how much Bitcoin recent buyers send to exchanges at a profit or loss; these participants often amplify volatility during stress events.
On March 1, realized losses dropped to about 3,700 BTC even as U.S.–Iran tensions rose. Bitcoin briefly dipped to $63,000 in that window, yet inflows from this cohort did not expand. By contrast, on Feb. 5–6 STHs sent roughly 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a realized loss within 24 hours — a peak capitulation episode. Since then, loss-driven inflows have steadily compressed.
Crypto analyst MorenoDV noted that the most event-sensitive holders have not accelerated distribution and showed “zero panic.” The reduction in loss transfers suggests sell pressure from recent buyers has eased. Whether a sustained rally follows could depend on realized losses staying contained rather than reverting to prior capitulation levels amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.
BTC futures deleveraging meets external liquidity
Derivatives data points to notable risk reduction. Binance open interest fell from about 130,800 BTC to 97,680 BTC since the start of the year, a roughly 25% contraction. The estimated leverage ratio (open interest relative to exchange BTC reserves) declined to a weekly average near 0.146; readings below 0.15 have historically coincided with aggressive deleveraging phases this cycle.
Technically, Bitcoin is attempting to reclaim its Monthly RVWAP (rolling volume-weighted average price), currently near the high-$68,000 area. Trading above that mark typically puts the average monthly participant back in profit and can shift short-term trader bias.
On the four-hour chart, price has pushed through $70,000 and is approaching an external liquidity pocket between $70,000 and $71,500. If that range converts to support, it could open a path toward the $80,000 region where supply capped gains in January. Crypto trader LP said higher-timeframe, low-leverage liquidation clusters are stacking near and just above the range highs (70–73K), and such liquidity pools often act as magnets when they accumulate.
Spot flow context shows broader buying: Binance printed about $7.79 million in positive delta during the breakout leg, Coinbase roughly $1.16 million, and OKX nearly $3.7 million. The positive delta across venues indicates aggressive spot bidding rather than an isolated derivatives-driven move. With leverage reduced and loss-driven selling falling, market focus shifts to how price reacts around the $71,500 liquidity band.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
