Key takeaways:
– Private credit strains and weaker US jobless data pushed Bitcoin lower, but medium-term drivers could still favor BTC.
– Outflows from institutional Bitcoin ETFs and miner sales have weighed on price, yet potential fiscal and liquidity responses may support scarce assets.
Bitcoin faced rejection at about $69,000 after President Trump’s speech failed to ease tensions with Iran, helping send oil above $110 and prompting a move away from risk assets. Despite defending the $66,000 support level throughout the week, traders are cautious about downside risk ahead of an Easter long weekend closure of US and European markets.
The renewed threat of US-led military action in Iran boosted crude prices and prompted risk-off positioning. At the same time, turmoil in private credit markets dented confidence: alternative manager Blue Owl reported “extraordinary redemption requests” for two private credit funds and capped withdrawals at 5%, highlighting stress in lending to largely software-sector borrowers. Regulators will survey domestic and international insurance markets through early May.
Short-term sentiment was further soured by a rise in US continuing jobless claims to 1.84 million for the week ending March 21. While this data alone isn’t necessarily bearish for equities, many layoffs are linked to companies reallocating budgets toward AI, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
Counterintuitively, weakening activity and a ballooning federal deficit could make monetary and fiscal policy more accommodative, which may benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin. The US federal deficit is projected to reach about $1.9 trillion in 2026, limiting policy options and increasing the likelihood of liquidity injections—an environment that historically supports assets perceived as inflation hedges.
Institutional flows have been a drag on BTC’s near-term trajectory. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced roughly $450 million in net outflows since March 24, signaling weaker institutional demand. Those ETFs hold about $88 billion in Bitcoin, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust leading at roughly $53.9 billion. Continued strength around $66,000 would likely slow outflows.
Miners and public companies have also sold BTC, adding supply pressure. MARA Holdings disclosed selling 15,133 BTC in March at prices well below its estimated cost basis; Riot Platforms moved 500 BTC for sale; Nakamoto Holdings reported selling 284 BTC despite earlier plans to accumulate. Offsetting some of this pressure, firms like MicroStrategy and Metaplanet have continued purchases, helping absorb sales.
For Bitcoin to press above $75,000, market risk perceptions must improve. If ETFs stop bleeding assets and corporate/mining selling abates—while central authorities lean toward stimulus to counter slower growth—the macro backdrop could again favor scarce assets. In that scenario, BTC’s path to $75,000 remains feasible despite current headwinds.
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