Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) have largely stopped selling after BTC slipped below $90,000, new on-chain research shows, as the profitability of LTH-held supply has faded.
Key findings
– CryptoQuant’s Quicktake shows a pronounced shift in profitability between long-term holders and short-term holders (STHs).
– The LTH-SOPR/STH-SOPR ratio has dropped to about 1.35, the lowest level since early 2024, coinciding with Bitcoin’s correction toward $89.7K.
– Short-term holders are now responsible for most in-profit transactions, while LTH heavy distribution appears to have ended.
What the metrics mean
– SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) measures whether spent outputs are in profit or loss. CryptoQuant used an LTH/ STH SOPR ratio to compare profitability dynamics between cohorts.
– LTHs are defined as wallets holding BTC for more than 155 days; STHs hold for less than 155 days.
– The decline in the SOPR ratio implies a “complete reset” of market profitability — earlier speculative gains that pushed the ratio higher have been flushed out, reducing LTH selling pressure.
Speculative behavior
– Short-term holder activity has been erratic. CryptoQuant’s 30-day rolling net position change for STHs spiked on Nov. 24 and then turned negative on Dec. 1 as Bitcoin experienced another drawdown around the December monthly open.
– These swings reflect knee‑jerk trading by speculators reacting to recent price volatility.
Implications
– With LTHs largely refraining from selling and STHs accounting for most in‑profit spends, market distribution dynamics have shifted toward a cooler, less congested supply environment.
– The SOPR ratio’s move to two‑year lows signals subdued profitability and a reset in behavior across holder cohorts, which could affect near‑term liquidity and volatility patterns.
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