Bitcoin (BTC) faces a fresh showdown this week as macro tensions contrast with a budding bullish reversal in price action.
Key points
– A classic BTC metric, the weekly MACD, is poised to flip bullish for the first time in nearly a year — the last weekly MACD flip in May 2025 preceded roughly $25,000 of gains over two months.
– Short time frames show large liquidations as aggressive traders piled in near $70,000.
– Escalating Iran war tensions and US President Donald Trump’s “Bridge Day” / “Power Plant Day” deadline add geopolitical risk.
– Multiple US inflation prints (PCE and CPI) this week could reflect war-driven oil-price shocks.
– A bearish “second bear flag” remains in play; many analysts say new lows are “likely just a matter of time.”
MACD teases a key bullish cross
On weekly charts, Bitcoin reclaimed the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the weekly MACD is close to turning positive, suggesting the downtrend may be reversing. Crypto commentator Crypto Seth noted the importance of holding this level for the broader industry, and Ether’s MACD was also due a cross.
Bitcoin’s last bullish weekly MACD flip was in May 2025, about a month after the 2025 low near $74,500. Over the following two months price rose from roughly $94,000 to $119,000, setting new highs. GalaxyTrading highlighted historical comparisons: in both the 2018 and 2022 bear markets it took about 245 days for the weekly MACD to turn positive, and 245 days in 2026 would be reached by the end of April.
Liquidations spike as BTC tags $70,000
Bitcoin moved above $70,000 after the weekly close, reaching April highs and bringing the 200-week EMA and the old 2021 all-time high back into focus as potential support. The move triggered substantial liquidations: total crypto liquidations exceeded $250 million over a 24-hour span, according to CoinGlass data. Some traders warned of liquidity around $64k–$64.5k that could fuel downside hunts.
Onchain analytics from CryptoQuant flagged rising speculative activity on Binance — increases in cumulative net taker volume and open interest — indicating traders are adding fresh exposure in derivatives. Contributor Amr Taha noted that this renewed speculative participation could reinforce short-term momentum if it continues.
Trump’s Iran “Bridge Day” raises volatility
Geopolitics compound the picture. Markets remain sensitive to the US-Israel–Iran conflict and related disruptions such as partial closures of the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude moved above $115/barrel early in the week. Traders focused on a deadline (referred to by President Trump as “Bridge Day” / “Power Plant Day”) for strikes if no deal is reached, creating heightened risk around the specified hour.
There were mixed headlines about a possible 45-day ceasefire attempt, and S&P 500 futures erased losses on such reports, underscoring how quickly risk assets can swing on war-related developments. Macro investor James Lavish warned a “black swan” event could produce a sizable BTC drawdown — he suggested up to roughly 20% in a severe scenario.
Two major US inflation prints coincide with war risks
Markets will juggle war shocks and key US inflation data this week, including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI). February’s PCE matched expectations but didn’t reflect full war-driven inflation effects. Rising oil and possible fertilizer-related food shocks keep the inflation outlook uncertain.
Kobeissi Letter noted that if oil remains above $115/barrel for another ~7 weeks, their model projects US CPI could rise to about 3.7% year-over-year; their base case was nearer 3.0% — still above the Fed’s 2% target. The most recent CPI print was flat, tempering some pressure, and market pricing via the CME FedWatch Tool showed virtually no chance of a rate move at the April FOMC, but sustained inflation upside would matter for Fed policy and risk assets.
Bear flag, new lows remain a risk
Despite the weekly MACD setup, a bearish structure persists: BTC/USD is still viewed by many traders as inside a second 2026 bear flag. The first bear flag in January preceded a roughly $25,000 drop. Material Indicators cofounder Keith Alan warned the structure still resembles the prior bear-flag pattern and is treating it as a roadmap until price deviates.
Consensus among several analysts and traders is that February’s wick below $60,000 will likely be revisited. Pseudonymous trader LP said new lows were “likely just a matter of time,” advising close attention to how price behaves if lows are repeatedly swept — repeated sweeps can make entering longs psychologically difficult and often precede bottom formation. Alan noted a possible measured move down to the mid-$40,000s if bear-flag support breaks, while expecting resistance tests in the $67k–$69k range before another leg down. He added that an end to the war or a strong Q2 open could invalidate the bear flag and challenge macro resistance.
Watchlist
– Weekly MACD cross and whether weekly close holds above 200-week EMA.
– Liquidity bands around $64k–$64.5k and the $60k wick lows.
– Derivatives participation and Binance open interest/taker volume trends.
– Oil price trajectory and PCE/CPI prints for Fed policy implications.
– Geopolitical headlines around Iran, ceasefire talk, and any strikes or escalations.
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