Key takeaways:
– Despite strong ETF inflows, Bitcoin remains tied to the S&P 500 and sensitive to global macro developments.
– Bitcoin futures premiums and miner selling indicate the bear market may still be in effect despite price trading above $74,000.
Bitcoin reclaimed the $74,000 level on Monday after modest gains in the S&P 500, following US President Donald Trump’s order of a US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Traders have grown cautiously more confident amid sizable net inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and continued accumulation by Strategy (MSTR US), but it remains unclear whether the bear market is over.
US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $615 million in net inflows between Thursday and Friday, reversing the prior two-day trend. Strategy also said it purchased 13,927 BTC over the past week, with roughly $1 billion of purchases funded via its yield-bearing instrument, Stretch (STRC US).
Even with rising institutional demand, Bitcoin continues to track the S&P 500 and broader US macro moves. The asset fell to about $70,500 over the weekend after failed US-Iran ceasefire talks. Brent crude later eased to $99 on Monday, helping risk assets, including Bitcoin, to gain.
Derivatives metrics have not turned decisively bullish. Two-month Bitcoin futures traded at an annualized premium near 2% versus spot, signaling little demand for bullish leverage. Under neutral conditions, that premium typically sits between 4% and 8% to cover capital costs. Bitcoin is down roughly 18% in 2026 so far, while the S&P 500 is comparatively flat year-to-date.
Regulatory clarity may back Bitcoin’s rally
The sharp correction in late January likely reflected, in part, regulatory uncertainty in the US. Senator Cynthia Lummis has urged colleagues to approve the CLARITY Act, which would clarify stablecoin operations and set thresholds for token decentralization. The bill faces a critical window in the Senate Banking Committee, and major exchanges have raised concerns about late-stage additions affecting DeFi and tokenized assets. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins has also said Congress should move forward with regulation.
USD stablecoins traded at a 0.4% discount to the official USD/CNY rate on Monday, a sign that demand to exit crypto markets was elevated. Under balanced conditions, stablecoins usually trade at a 0.5%–1.5% premium to offset FX remittance costs and China’s capital-control frictions.
Bitcoin miners’ sell pressure, US macroeconomic uncertainty
Given the continued correlation with traditional markets and feeble derivatives signals, ETF inflows and select corporate accumulation alone are insufficient evidence that the bear market has ended—especially as publicly listed miners have trimmed holdings. MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC, Riot Platforms cut exposure by 2,325 BTC, and Cango sold about 2,000 BTC in the past 30 days.
For now, Bitcoin’s route to $80,000 likely depends on improved risk sentiment, while near-term momentum will be driven by developments in US macro data and the Israel-Iran conflict.
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