Bitcoin’s consolidation has stretched into a fifth week after a major low of $60,000 on Feb. 6, with daily ranges tightening as highs and lows converge. The pattern of higher lows and lower highs has some traders eyeing a breakout, supported by renewed institutional buying, Morgan Stanley’s planned spot BTC ETF and large purchases by Strategy, but market structure still leans bearish.
Independent analyst filbfilb wrote on Telegram that the outlook is “still bearish overall,” while noting the 50-day moving average (DMA) and diagonal resistance could invalidate that view. He highlighted the 50-DMA, around $68,800, as a critical level to watch: “BTC currently making a reversal back to previous support, the 50 DMA as suspected. The 50-DMA currently sits at $68.8K give or take and is critical to watch IMO.”
Michael van de Poppe of MN Fund similarly forecast a short-term bearish resumption, saying it’s better to ask “when” rather than “if” Bitcoin will fall, noting bounces are often pushed back down.
Despite those bearish reads, Bitcoin has shown resilience around $67,000–$68,000 this week, even as oil topped $105 and geopolitical tensions in Iran escalated. A decisive flip of $68,879 — roughly the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement — could open a path toward $82,000. That scenario is supported by a VPVR gap on the daily chart and liquidation heatmaps that show short-liquidity clusters near $68,500–$70,000 and $72,000–$74,000, which could fuel a liquidation-driven rally if hit.
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