Bitcoin (BTC) rose 8% on Wednesday to trade above $73,000, clearing a ceiling that had capped recoveries for the past three weeks. Analysts say BTC must hold roughly $70,000 to secure the recovery.
Key takeaways:
– Profit-taking on rallies to $70,000 must cool for a sustained breakout.
– Bitcoin needs support in the $68,000–$70,000 zone to confirm the recovery.
Profit-taking must be absorbed with strong buying
After a sixth straight weekly close in the red, Bitcoin has finally moved above the $64,000–$70,000 range that governed price action over recent weeks. On-chain analytics firm Glassnode highlights that repeated spikes in realized profit near $70,000—specifically when the 12-hour SMA of net realized profit-and-loss rose above $5 million per hour—have coincided with stalled rallies and reversals around the $69,400 area. In a thin liquidity environment, these profit-taking spikes absorb upward momentum and expose the fragility of demand. For BTC to remain above $70,000, that profit-taking must be absorbed without triggering price rejection.
Swissblock’s Bitcoin risk index, which spent nearly 30 days at an “extreme risk” reading of 100, is showing signs of cooling. A return to lower risk readings could catalyze further upside, with initial targets cited at $83K and a potential extension toward $110K. Compressed volatility, strengthening ETF inflows and a reduced Coinbase discount have also suggested the downtrend is slowing and raised the odds of a short-term rebound.
Bitcoin must hold $70,000 as support
Bitcoin’s roughly 21% recovery from lows below $60,000 has reclaimed key levels, including the 200-day EMA near $68,000 and the psychological $70,000 mark. Analyst Rekt Capital says BTC must reclaim that EMA as weekly support; until then, the EMA is acting as resistance. A daily close above $70,000 would be constructive, while failure to hold the $70,000 zone could prompt a retest of $65,000–$66,000, according to analyst Ted Pillows.
Glassnode’s short-term holder (STH) cost-basis heatmap shows the largest cluster of recent buys below $70,000—about 230,000 BTC acquired over the past month. Holding above those STH supply clusters is a key prerequisite to regain momentum for a decisive breakout. Breaking the symmetrical triangle’s resistance near $70,000 would strengthen the case for a sustained push toward $75,000 before month-end, and clear the path for higher targets if demand remains supportive.
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