Bitcoin inflows to exchanges jumped sharply Tuesday as BTC climbed above $76,000, a development CryptoQuant says signals potential near-term selling pressure. In a Wednesday note, the on-chain analytics firm highlighted both the pace and size of deposits rising since the rally began.
Hourly exchange inflows spiked to about 11,000 BTC—the largest surge since December—an uptick CryptoQuant calls a historically reliable warning that holders are preparing to distribute coins at resistance levels. Average deposit size also climbed to roughly 2.25 BTC, the biggest since July 2024 and similar to January’s peak (around 2 BTC) that preceded a drop from near $100,000 to roughly $60,000. That precedent underpins concern that heavy exchange inflows could make the current rally short-lived.
TradingView data shows Bitcoin reached $76,052 on Coinbase on Tuesday, its highest since early February. CryptoQuant noted BTC is approaching its realized price near $76,800, which may act as a ceiling for relief rallies: traders who would be approaching breakeven at that level have incentives to sell, potentially capping gains. The firm pointed to the January episode, when price stalled and reversed after hitting the realized price, as evidence that the same dynamic could repeat if selling intensifies.
CryptoQuant also said profit-taking appears to be in early stages. Daily realized profits currently sit near $500 million—well below the roughly $1 billion level that has historically coincided with or immediately preceded local tops. If realized profits climb above $1 billion—as might happen if BTC pushes further above $76,000 or toward the $76,800 realized level—selling pressure could increase, raising the odds of a pause or reversal.
Their chart shows Bitcoin approaching the realized price, with a lower band near $67,600 identified as short-term support. Market sentiment had improved as tensions with Iran appeared to ease, but the noticeable transfer of coins onto exchanges suggests traders are preparing for possible distribution. A stronger sell-off from current levels could quickly limit any upside.
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