Centralized crypto exchanges saw a sharp rise in hourly Bitcoin inflows on Monday as the market rallied, a move that an analyst warned could presage selling pressure.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, reported that hourly Bitcoin inflows into exchanges spiked to 6,100 BTC on March 16 — the highest level since Feb. 20. He added that large inflows accounted for 63% of total inflows, the largest share since mid-October 2025.
The surge comes as Bitcoin has rallied about 12% so far this month, reaching a six-week high near $76,000 on March 17. Traders frequently transfer BTC to exchanges when preparing to sell or convert to stablecoins, and Moreno noted that historically, spikes in large deposits to exchanges have been associated with increased selling pressure.
The inflow surge occurred days before the Federal Reserve’s meeting and rate decision, which can influence crypto sentiment. Markets widely expect no change to US interest rates this month, with CME FedWatch futures pricing a 98.9% probability of rates remaining unchanged and a 1.1% chance of a hike. The Associated Press has reported the Fed could even signal no rate cuts this year amid geopolitical tensions and rising inflation concerns.
Moreno also highlighted potential near-term resistance for Bitcoin at $75,000. He said these levels correspond to the lower band of traders’ onchain Realized Price, which has historically acted as price resistance in bear markets. According to TradingView, BTC approached $75,000 on Coinbase three times in the past 24 hours and was rejected each time. The broader Realized Price — the average break-even price for active traders that served as resistance in October and January — is currently around $84,700.
(Reporting based on CryptoQuant, TradingView and market data; additional context from the Associated Press.)