Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen 13% over the past four days, sliding to $63,844 from $79,300. It is trading below $69,000, the 2021 bull market high that many traders view as a support level.
The drop coincided with a sharp decline in futures activity, as BTC’s open interest fell by more than $10 billion over the past seven days. Analysts are now watching long-term technical zones and on-chain indicators for signs of a potential turning point.
Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin has dropped 13% in four days, slipping below the 2021 cycle high near $69,000 after a sharp leverage reset.
– A key Bitcoin demand zone from $58,000 to $69,000 is supported by heavy transaction volume and the 200-week moving average.
– Oversold technical and sentiment indicators suggest downside pressure may be peaking for BTC, even if a relief rally fails to manifest.
Why the $69,000 level matters for Bitcoin
The $69,000 mark is the peak of the 2021 bull market. Prior cycle tops have often acted as support during subsequent declines. In the last cycle, Bitcoin found a bottom near the 2017 high of $19,600 before briefly dipping to about $16,000 in November 2022.
The current slide below $69,000 could follow the same pattern, but past cycles also show prices can breach previous highs before forming a final low, leaving downside risk open.
Bitwise European Head of Research André Dragosch noted a large share of recent transactions occurred between $58,000 and $69,000. That range also aligns with the 200-week moving average near $58,000, reinforcing it as a key demand zone. Crypto analyst exitpump highlighted visible large bids on order books between $68,000 and $65,000, indicating buyer interest on dips.
BTC flashes record oversold signals
Market analyst Subu Trade said Bitcoin’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below 30. BTC has reached this level only four times before, and each instance was followed by an average 16% rally over the next four days.
Analyst MorenoDV also noted that adjusted net unrealized profit/loss (aNUPL) has turned negative for the first time since 2023, meaning the average holder is now at a loss. Similar conditions in 2018–2019, 2020 and 2022–2023 led to recoveries for BTC.
While a relief rally might not arrive immediately, MorenoDV pointed out that the current “speed of sentiment deterioration” is much faster than previous cycles. The analyst added, “This rapid transition suggests an acute sentiment reset rather than a gradual decline, potentially shortening the capitulation phase.”
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