Key takeaways:
– Derivatives and onchain data show limited bullish conviction; 43% of Bitcoin holders remain at a loss despite recent gains.
– Surging AI energy demand is squeezing miner profits to record lows, forcing major listed firms to sell BTC and pivot to computing.
– Traders face a psychological hurdle at $76,000—the average cost basis for major corporate holders like Strategy.
Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to a four-week high on Wednesday, potentially opening a path toward the $78,700 monthly close recorded in January. But despite a 22% rally from the $60,000 local low on Feb. 6, several onchain and derivatives metrics indicate bears retain control.
Put (sell) options have recently traded at about a 10% premium to equivalent calls. In neutral conditions, the 30-day put-call skew typically sits between -6% and 6%, a range last seen in mid-January when Bitcoin traded near $95,000. Professional traders appear to favor downside protection while demand for bullish futures is muted: the annualized futures basis remains below the neutral 5% threshold.
This caution follows a month of consolidation after the 32% crash in early February. The lack of strong bullish positioning, even as BTC trades above $73,000, likely reflects that a large share of holders are still underwater. Glassnode estimates show 43% of circulating supply is held at a loss based on coins’ last move, up from about 30% when Bitcoin was near $90,000 in late January. Traders worry these losing holders may sell into rallies, creating persistent overhead pressure that could cap gains.
The mining sector adds to the bearish case. Explosive demand for AI and high-performance computing has raised energy costs and reduced blockchain-related revenue, pushing miner profitability toward record lows. The Bitcoin Hashprice index—expected daily value per terahash—fell to about $30 this week, down from $39 three months ago. Several listed miners have begun offloading BTC reserves and shifting capital toward AI computing opportunities, raising fears miners could become net sellers after previously accumulating.
Strategy (MSTR US) exemplifies the corporate-reserve dynamic. Having purchased 720,737 BTC since August 2020, Strategy’s average acquisition price sits near $76,000. While the company isn’t facing immediate liquidation risk or cash shortfalls for yield-bearing obligations, prices above its cost basis incentivize stock issuance strategies that can pressure markets without diluting current shareholders. Market participants seeking to contain BTC could therefore aim to keep price below $76,000, making a sustained move toward $78,700 contingent on overcoming that corporate incentive and the broader lack of bullish conviction.
In short, while recent gains and a four-week high signal a recovery attempt, derivatives skew, persistent underwater holders, miner profit stress, and the $76,000 corporate cost basis together suggest $78K–$79K may remain a meaningful resistance zone until conviction improves.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision. While we strive to provide accurate and timely information, Cointelegraph does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information in this article. This article may contain forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Cointelegraph will not be liable for any loss or damage arising from your reliance on this information.
