Bitcoin (BTC) hit range highs above $76,000 on Wednesday, but Glassnode analysts say it’s premature to call a new bull market.
New capital inflows remain weak: Bitcoin’s growth rate has been negative for all 105 trading days of 2026, signaling a gap between steady price action and limited new demand.
Bitcoin profitability signal remains unresolved
Glassnode analyst CryptoViz.art uses the true market mean (TMM) to estimate the average cost basis of active BTC investors. TMM divides investor capitalization by liveliness‑adjusted circulating supply to filter inactive and lost coins.
BTC fell below the TMM on Jan. 31 and has stayed there for 75 days, putting the average active holder in loss. The peak drawdown was about 20%, and the current gap is roughly 5% below the entry level.
Since 2016 there have been 10 similar breaks, lasting from two days to over 11 months. The deepest drawdowns hit 57% in 2018–2019 and 2022–2023; March 2020 saw a 40% decline over 49 days. As CryptoViz.art noted, “75 days is still early. The 2018 and 2022 episodes didn’t bottom until months 5–9. The signal isn’t ‘all clear’ — watch closely.”
Reclaiming the TMM, currently at $78,013, has historically aligned with momentum resets and is key for active investors to return to profit.
Related: Adam Back says Bitcoin’s post-quantum shift may reveal true Satoshi stash
BTC capital outflows shape the price ceiling
Researcher Axel Adler Jr. highlights steady capital leaving the BTC market. The 365‑day growth rate of market cap relative to realized cap has been negative for all 105 trading days in 2026, with the latest reading at -0.000652—meaning the market isn’t attracting enough new money to push prices higher.
The 30‑day realized cap change mirrors this trend: only seven days showed positive inflows so far, all in mid‑January. Since Jan. 23 the metric has remained negative, though it has improved to about -0.32% from early April lows near -0.54%. Realized cap has fallen to $1.08 trillion from $1.12 trillion since January, a 3.23% decline.
Adler Jr. says the recent improvement represents a slowdown in outflows rather than a bullish reversal. A meaningful shift would require both the growth‑rate and realized‑cap change to turn positive and hold above zero.
Related: Morgan Stanley’s Bitcoin fund overtakes WisdomTree after 6 trading days
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