Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded 7.45% over the past two days after falling to $62,400 on Tuesday, below a key onchain support. Despite the bounce, holders who bought six months to two years ago still carry an average cost of $74,500, making that level a potential inflection point for the market.
As BTC climbs, the concentration of supply around $74,500 is a key test: a decisive reclaim of that price could indicate renewed demand and a shift in short-term market structure.
Why $74,500 matters to bulls
Bitcoin’s realized price tracks the average onchain acquisition cost for UTXOs by age. For coins aged 18–24 months, that realized support sits near $64,200, which BTC tested and reclaimed by Tuesday’s daily close, according to analyst Anıl. Cost-basis levels act as psychological pivots: trading below them increases unrealized losses and the likelihood of distribution, while sustained trading above reduces stress and encourages re-accumulation.
Expanding the view to UTXOs aged six months to two years captures investors from the prior cycle’s consolidation and breakout. The realized price for this cohort is near $74,500—well above the current market price—and its MVRV ratio sits at about 0.88, meaning this group is, on average, holding at a loss. Falling below $74,500 placed these investors in unrealized losses; a sustained move back above would return much of the cohort to aggregate profit and could ease sell-side pressure from holders aiming to exit near breakeven.
Long-term supply and potential upside
Onchain data show long-term holder balances have recovered to about 13.96 million BTC after dipping to a multi-year low on Nov. 21, 2025, indicating continued coin dormancy despite volatility. If the six-month-to-two-year cohort absorbs selling and holds, supply sitting between $74,500 and $100,000 could thin more quickly. A sustained rally above $74,500 could push a large portion of these coins back into profit and shift liquidity focus toward the $100,000 area.
Realized cap and capital flows
BTC’s realized cap—which measures aggregate value using each coin’s last onchain move—is near cycle highs, but its expansion has slowed. The realized cap net position change has compressed toward neutral (around 0%), signaling negligible new capital inflows. Historically, late bear phases show flat or contracting realized cap, while early recoveries stabilize before accelerating. A renewed expansion in net position change back toward roughly 2%–4% would more clearly confirm fresh capital re-entering and rising accumulation.
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