A Bitcoin (BTC) bottom signal that preceded a 130% rally in 2024 has reappeared this week, suggesting price may be nearing another bullish inflection. However, current liquidity, ETF flows and macro data differ from two years ago, so a repeat of that cycle is not guaranteed.
BTC bottom trigger appears without strong follow-through
Data aggregator Swissblock reported Bitcoin has spent 25 consecutive days in its “extreme high risk” zone — the longest stretch on record and above the 23 days seen in 2023. Historically, extended stays in this zone have aligned with late-stage drawdowns or a bottom signal.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe highlighted BTC’s interaction with supply-in-profit/loss levels that previously marked bottoming phases. In 2023, a shift from high risk to low risk coincided with the start of a major bullish move.
Despite these signals, trader positioning does not yet confirm an uptrend. RugaResearch noted 30-day apparent demand continues flipping between positive and negative. Selling pressure has eased but sustained buying demand has not consistently dominated.
Deeper Bitcoin drawdowns take time
Macroeconomic newsletter Ecoinometrics emphasized that declines of this magnitude rarely resolve quickly. Except for the 2020 COVID period—when aggressive monetary intervention supported markets—recoveries from 50% drawdowns have unfolded over extended timelines.
ETF flow data adds to the cautious tone. Since August, cumulative inflows into gold ETFs have outpaced spot Bitcoin ETF flows on a 90-day rolling basis. Over the same timeframe, Bitcoin funds posted negative flows on a 90-day average, currently around –$2.06 billion.
Inflation trends further constrain the outlook. Headline PCE sits near 2.9% year-on-year, core PCE near 3.0% and core services above 3.4%. With the Federal Reserve targeting PCE and no clear downward shift in these measures, expectations for renewed liquidity expansion are limited.
Price levels frame debate and resistance
CMCC Crest’s Willy Woo warned any short-term relief rally to $70,000–$80,000 is likely to trigger renewed selling, given deteriorating spot and futures liquidity. Woo noted $45,000 aligns with the prior bear market; below that, $30,000 and $16,000 represent historical support tied to longer-term trend preservation.
Conclusion
While on-chain risk indicators and supply metrics are flashing conditions associated with past bottoms, demand metrics, ETF flows and macro factors are not yet aligned. That mismatch suggests a bottom signal may require more time and liquidity improvement before a sustained bull phase can follow.
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