Several crypto analysts say Bitcoin may suffer a final “flush” down to $50,000 before mounting a sustained recovery. Trader and author Ivan Liljeqvist wrote on X that he does not believe $60,000 marked the bottom and that “trend is still down,” calling recent bounces “tiny” compared with the broader trend and noting the typical bull-market strength is “just not here right now.”
Analyst Merlijn Enkelaar said Bitcoin could enter a second bear phase after accumulation, with a “manipulation phase” sending prices toward $50,000 before a later “distribution phase.” Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that $50,000 is viewed by some as “the last significant accumulation zone before any sustained recovery” and would represent a healthy cycle reset amid macro pressures and weak capital rotation. He added that institutionalization of crypto markets provides consistent buying pressure at current levels, which could support stronger bullish momentum once the flush concludes.
Analyst “symbiote” described the high timeframe as “super bearish” and said he is waiting for a final large dump to one of his targets, $59,000 or $50,000. Jelle identified a bearish flag chart pattern that remains “in play,” a trend-continuation signal that suggests further declines.
The bearish views persist despite a recent rally to just below $75,000, driven by renewed hope for a US–Iran deal to end weeks of conflict that had suppressed markets.
Ruck noted Bitcoin is already down roughly 40% from its last all-time high, with significant institutional participation. He contrasted current conditions with past cycles driven more by retail speculation, which saw deeper drawdowns—82% after the 2017 peak and 77% after the 2021 high. Ruck said there is a chance this cycle might not reach an “idealized 60% drawdown” because of the market’s distinct macro structure.
Fidelity Digital Assets earlier this month also said downside risk in 2026 has been less dramatic compared with previous cycles.
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