The Bitcoin price has rebounded above $69,000 after a sharp decline last week, but market analyst LavaXBT warns another significant drop may be coming. In a macro update on X, the analyst outlined two scenarios but favored a bearish path: an initial decline to about $45,000 followed by a plunge toward a possible final bottom near $29,000.
LavaXBT said his earlier Q1 2026 thesis didn’t materialize despite technical alignment, attributing the deviation to thin trading volume and ongoing geopolitical tensions—particularly the US‑Iran conflict—heightening investor fear and volatility. Given the current low-volume, unpredictable price action, he plans to short Bitcoin if it rallies to roughly $73,000, $78,000, or $80,000.
He also warned that a BTC crash to $29,000 would likely hit altcoins harder, potentially pushing many back to their 2022 crash prices or lower. He advised against indiscriminate altcoin buying and recommended waiting for Bitcoin to reach strong support levels before accumulating, emphasizing patience and selective opportunity during the bear market.
On the upside, LavaXBT noted bullish conditions would improve if Bitcoin reclaims the swing high near $93,000. A confirmed uptrend would require closing above $120,000, after which he sees a potential macro target around $160,000—about 27% above the current all-time high of $126,000.
Sources cited include the analyst’s X post and TradingView charts.