Bitcoin’s next major catalyst may come from upending the common assumption that falling interest rates are the sole bullish signal for the crypto, according to a market analyst.
“I think we should expect that having more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst to help us go into a bull market,” ProCap Financial chief investment officer Jeff Park said during an interview with Anthony Pompliano. Park was speaking on The Pomp Podcast.
Accommodative policies—like lowering interest rates—are used by the US Federal Reserve to spur growth, reduce unemployment, and increase liquidity. Many in crypto view such conditions as favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin, since traditional yields on bonds and term deposits decline.
Rising rates are usually seen as a headwind for Bitcoin, but Park argued that Bitcoin’s next major upside catalyst — potentially its “endgame” — could be a regime in which the asset’s price rises even as Fed interest rates climb. He described that scenario as the “mythical, elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be, which is when Bitcoin goes up as interest rates go up, which is very counterintuitive to the QE theory.”
However, Park added that such an outcome would undermine confidence in the “risk-free rate” itself. In that world, he said, the dollar’s dominance and the conventional pricing of the yield curve would be questioned.
Park argued the monetary system is “broken” and that the Fed–Treasury relationship is “not at the level it should be” to reliably direct the path of national securities.
On trader sentiment, Polymarket users assign the highest single probability (27%) to three total Fed rate cuts in 2026. At publication, Bitcoin traded at $70,503, down about 22.5% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
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