Since its cycle peak last August, Cardano (ADA) has trended lower, approaching price levels not seen since early 2024. Early-May hopes for an altseason faded as ADA erased the month’s gains, and the coin’s current structure suggests it could face more downside if it finishes May beneath an important long-term support.
On May 30, crypto analyst Ali Martinez noted on X that ADA has been sitting at a critical make-or-break zone on the monthly chart. The token has been moving inside a multi-year channel that began in 2021. After touching the channel’s upper edge at about $1.195 in early 2025, ADA reversed and gave up a meaningful support near $0.544 last November.
The next clear floor that Martinez highlights is around $0.247, a level that previously acted as strong support and helped launch the last major rally toward $1.195. In recent days ADA slipped under that mark, dropping as low as roughly $0.232, putting the monthly close in question. If the May candlestick closes and stays below $0.247, Martinez argues the immediate market structure would change and ADA could enter a deeper valuation phase.
Under that scenario, the analyst points to long-term accumulation targets near $0.113 and $0.051. From the current price range, those levels would imply a decline of nearly 78% if ADA remains below the $0.247 floor. By contrast, if the channel’s support holds and buying returns, a recovery toward about $0.544 would be a plausible upside path.
At the time of writing ADA is trading around $0.237, having gained a little more than 2% over the past 24 hours. The coming days—specifically whether May’s monthly candle closes above or below $0.247—will be an important short- to medium-term test for Cardano’s market structure and possible next leg of movement.