The Bitcoin recovery above $80,000 has restored some market confidence, but an analyst says the timing of the rebound could be hazardous. On X, Crypto Patel warned that Bitcoin has reached the same phase of the four‑year cycle that previously produced deep quarterly breakdowns.
Bitcoin’s move above $80,000 pushed CoinMarketCap’s fear and greed index into high neutral territory, aided by stronger ETF inflows in April and May. Still, Bitcoin remains about 35.5% below its October 2025 peak. While price action in May looks positive, Patel notes that mid‑term years historically coincide with major crashes.
Patel’s chart highlights three prior mid‑term year May peaks followed by large declines: 2014 (peak in May, −76.04%), 2018 (May peak, −68.35%), and 2022 (May window, −70.06%). “Three for three,” he wrote, calling it a pattern of cycle mechanics rather than coincidence. Extending that structure into 2026 — another mid‑term year — his projection shows a potential drop of roughly 66.54% from current levels.
Applying the average drawdowns from past mid‑term cycles, Patel suggested a possible bottom zone between $50,000 and $30,000.
The concern is compounded because Bitcoin’s present market structure isn’t overtly bearish. At the time of commentary, BTC traded near $81,530 and was approaching its 200‑day EMA around $83,000. Prior to the recent rise, Bitcoin spent about eight weeks consolidating in the $60,000–$72,000 range. Many market participants read the recovery as confirmation that the bottom is in, but Patel warns that belief may be a “relief rally” trap.
Other analysts have also argued the four‑year halving cycle could mean the bear market extends into Q4 before a durable bottom forms.
Chart sources: Crypto Patel’s X post and TradingView. Featured image generated with DALL·E.