Polymarket traders put the probability of the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal commercial traffic by May 31, 2026, at about 73% after a temporary reopening announced by Iranian officials as part of a ceasefire deal.
Odds on the prediction platform briefly rose to 82% after Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi declared the strait open, then eased back to 73%. Araghchi said in a social post that passage for all commercial vessels is “completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire,” following routes announced by Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization. By contrast, the market assigned only a 40% chance that traffic would normalize by the end of April.
The conflict in Iran has rippled through financial markets, affecting cryptocurrencies and energy prices as investors react to geopolitical developments. Bitcoin jumped on the ceasefire news, briefly touching $78,000 before trading around $77,358 at the time of publication.
Crypto analyst Nic Puckrin called the ceasefire “fragile,” noting unresolved core issues. He said the fallout from the conflict could weigh on markets through much of 2026 and push any interest-rate cuts to Q3 2026 at the earliest, if they happen this year. For Bitcoin to push back toward $90,000, Puckrin said a sustained easing of geopolitical tensions, a sizable drop in oil toward $80, and softer economic data to ease stagflation fears would be needed.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. naval blockade on Iran would “remain in full force and effect” until the transaction with Iran is “100% complete.”
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