Bitcoin (BTC) may have a total addressable market that exceeds gold’s roughly $38 trillion valuation, according to a crypto-industry executive, who also says BTC tends to perform well amid geopolitical turmoil.
Key points:
– Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says bitcoin should continue to outperform during geopolitical crises.
– Hougan argues bitcoin’s addressable market could be larger than gold’s near-$38 trillion market cap.
– Trader Michaël van de Poppe forecasts a return to about $90,000 for bitcoin after a historic drawdown versus gold.
Bitcoin likely to rise in geopolitical shocks
In a recent post on X, Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at crypto asset manager Bitwise, noted that geopolitical conflict has coincided with bitcoin strength. Since U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, bitcoin rose roughly 12% while the S&P 500 slipped about 1% and gold fell near 10%, Hougan pointed out. Bitcoin also rallied toward $76,000 recently, reaching two-month highs amid easing U.S. inflation data and shifting risk dynamics.
Hougan says the market reaction surprised many who expected bitcoin to decline in a risk-off geopolitical event. He rejects two common explanations — that geopolitics doesn’t matter for bitcoin, and that war only helps bitcoin over the long term through money printing — calling both incomplete.
A major driver, he argues, is the growing “apolitical” appeal of bitcoin as nations face economic pressure from being excluded from global financial systems. Hougan recalls that Russia’s partial exclusion from SWIFT in 2022 suggested a potential opening for apolitical alternatives. With Iran now under sanctions and facing an oil blockade while crypto is used in transit and tolls through the Strait of Hormuz, that dynamic appears to be strengthening.
From this perspective, Hougan says two implications follow: bitcoin is likely to rise in future geopolitical conflicts—especially those occurring in regions caught between U.S. and Chinese systems—and bitcoin’s total addressable market is probably much larger than gold’s ~$38 trillion market alone.
Bitcoin vs. gold and bullish price forecasts
Measured against gold, bitcoin has been recovering from lows not seen since mid‑2023. The recovery has been gradual even as some see signs of an end to the “crypto winter.” Trader Michaël van de Poppe highlighted that BTC’s recent correction versus gold was the deepest in bitcoin’s history. Looking at prior instances, he said average returns 12 months after similar troughs ranged from roughly 350% to 450%, implying a multi‑year upside scenario (for example, an increase from $60,000 to around $275,000).
Van de Poppe added that in a shorter timeframe mean reversion could arrive sooner: he suggested that within about three months bitcoin could trade in the $87,500–$90,000 range. He summarized the lesson from past cycles as a reminder to “buy the dip” when such drawdowns occur.
The market outlook remains tied to developments in geopolitics, macro data, and flows into crypto as investors reassess bitcoin’s role relative to traditional safe havens like gold.
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