Bitcoin deposits to exchanges surged Tuesday as BTC rallied above $76,000, signaling “near-term selling pressure” as holders move coins to prepare for potential sales, CryptoQuant said.
In a Wednesday report, CryptoQuant noted the size and rate of BTC inflows to exchanges have climbed since the rally, with hourly inflows spiking to 11,000 BTC—the highest since December. The firm called this a “historically reliable warning signal of near-term selling pressure,” since holders often shift coins to exchanges ahead of distribution at key resistance zones.
Average deposit size also rose to 2.25 BTC, the largest since July 2024 and comparable to January’s peak (~2 BTC) before prices fell from roughly $100,000 to $60,000. That historical pattern underpins concerns that a large exchange inflow could make any current rally short-lived.
TradingView data shows Bitcoin reached $76,052 on Coinbase on Tuesday, its highest level since early February. CryptoQuant warned that as BTC nears the $76,800 realized price, that level may act “as a ceiling for relief rallies,” because traders approaching breakeven are incentivized to sell, capping further upside. January’s rally was similarly capped when price hit its realized level and reversed—CryptoQuant said the same dynamic could reoccur if selling intensifies.
Profit-taking remains “still in its early stages,” the report said: daily realized profits currently hover around $500 million, beneath the $1 billion threshold that has historically coincided with or slightly preceded local price tops. If realized profits move above $1 billion—possible if BTC rallies above $76,000 or toward the $76,800 realized price—selling pressure could rise and increase the chance of a stall or reversal.
CryptoQuant’s chart shows Bitcoin nearing its realized price (purple line), with a lower band near $67,600 serving as near-term support.
Market participants had been optimistic about a rally as tensions with Iran appeared to ease, but the shift of coins onto exchanges suggests caution: a stronger sell-off from current levels could quickly limit gains.
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