Hyperliquid’s native token HYPE re-tested $45 on Tuesday, its highest level since Oct. 31, 2025, extending a 108% rally from the yearly low of $21 on Jan. 21. Despite the price advance toward its all-time high, market demand signals are mixed, with weak spot buying threatening to undercut momentum.
HYPE trades about 26% below its peak of $59, and relatively thin resistance lies between current levels and the top. The next liquidity band sits roughly between $48 and $52 and could be reached if momentum holds. However, spot and futures data suggest the move lacks broad conviction.
The spot cumulative volume delta (CVD) has trended lower to around -$41.48 million even as price has risen, indicating passive rather than aggressive spot buying. Futures CVD has remained mostly flat near -$748 million over the past month after recovering from lows near -$900 million. Open interest has climbed to about $1.38 billion, near local highs, signaling more participation but not necessarily bullish conviction. Rising OI alongside weak futures CVD raises the risk that positions are vulnerable to liquidation-driven swings if the rally falters.
In March, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes forecast HYPE could reach $150 by August if Hyperliquid grows its futures market share and product suite. His thesis relies on continued gains for centralized exchange-like volumes and rising protocol revenue. Hyperliquid’s 30-day annualized revenue run rate was $843 million in March; reaching Hayes’ target would require about $1.4 billion by August, a roughly 66% increase in five months. The protocol allocates up to 97% of revenue to buying HYPE on the open market, directly tying trading activity to token demand.
HIP-3, a protocol upgrade enabling trading of non-crypto assets such as commodities, contributes close to 10% of revenue and may support further expansion as assets like gold and oil gain traction on the platform. Real-world asset (RWA) activity has accelerated: Hyperliquid’s RWA open interest rose to about $2.3 billion on April 6, marking roughly a 190% increase from March and nearly 800% from early-year lows.
This combination of protocol growth, revenue reinvestment into HYPE, and expanding RWA activity could underpin further upside, but the divergence between price and spot buying suggests the rally may be fragile and susceptible to sharp reversals.
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