Bitcoin (BTC) closed March in green, ending a six-month run of monthly losses and marking its first positive monthly candle since last September. The March close was about 2% higher, and analysts say the shift could signal renewed momentum — though risks remain.
Key takeaways:
– BTC ended March up ~2%, its first positive monthly close in six months.
– A similar six-month losing streak in 2018/2019 preceded a roughly 300%-plus rebound over the next five months.
– Immediate resistance sits in the $69,000–$72,000 area, where multiple trend lines and cohort cost bases converge.
Historical context and momentum
CoinGlass data confirm the six-month streak of red monthly candles ended with March’s green close. Traders flagged the similarity to late-2018/early-2019, when six consecutive down months were followed by a sustained five-month rally exceeding 300% from the lows.
Some market participants called March’s close a “massive dose of hopium,” citing the possibility of a momentum shift. Others noted April’s mixed history: since 2013, April has been positive eight of 13 times with average returns near 12.2%, yet April has also moved opposite March in nine of those 13 years. Between 2021 and 2024, April fell three times after a green March, underscoring that a green March does not guarantee an April advance.
Price action and levels to watch
On daily charts, BTC traded around $68,000–$68,500 as resistance in the $69,000–$70,000 area remained intact. Analysts expect range-bound behavior to continue until decisive breakouts or breakdowns occur. Important levels:
Upside:
– $70,000–$72,000 supply zone: coincides with the 50-day SMA, 50-day EMA and the 1w–1m cohort cost basis; Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution shows roughly 650,000 BTC acquired in this neighborhood, suggesting potential sell pressure.
– A breakout above that zone could target the $76,000 range high and the $80,000 psychological level.
– On the monthly timeframe, resistance near $83,000 (previous support) was highlighted by some traders as a possible push target.
Downside:
– 200-week EMA near $68,300 and the 200-week SMA around $59,400 are key support references.
– Below those, Bitcoin’s realized price near ~$54,000 represents a major structural level and a possible bear-market bottom indicator if revisited.
Outlook
The end of a multi-month downtrend historically can precede sharp recoveries, but April’s mixed record and the clustering of significant resistance around $70k–$72k leave multiple scenarios open. A clear break above the $72k zone would open higher targets; failure to hold near-weekly support could send BTC toward the 200-week SMA or the realized price band.
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