Bitcoin (BTC) approached $66,000 at Friday’s Wall Street open as analysts warned US inflation trends looked “objectively unsustainable.”
Key points:
– Bitcoin slid further amid oil-supply concerns after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz.
– BTC was poised to record its sixth consecutive monthly loss at March’s close.
– Traders pointed to $70,000 as resistance while watching downside support.
Oil squeeze rattles US bond market
TradingView data showed BTC sliding about 4% on the day, threatening to make March Bitcoin’s sixth straight “red” month.
Macro headlines pressured risk assets after Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz intensified worries over global oil supply. With the US-Iran conflict expected to extend into April, stress appeared across markets, including US Treasuries.
“The US bond market is in major trouble today,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter said on X, noting the 10-year Treasury yield was at highs not seen since the war began. That shift complicates the Federal Reserve’s task of controlling inflation while labor-market indicators remain weak.
“In less than one month, markets have gone from discussing rate cuts to rate hikes, with the base case showing a Fed PAUSE for the next 18 months,” the post said. “Keep in mind, the Fed was cutting interest rates because the labor market was weak, and it remains weak. However, inflation expectations have just become an even bigger problem than the labor market. This is objectively unsustainable.”
Market tools showed elevated Fed rate probabilities as oil-driven inflation concerns grew. Cointelegraph has reported that rising oil prices feed into US inflation trends and that markets have increased recession odds for 2026.
Adam Kobeissi added on X that inflation expectations had deteriorated enough that markets were pricing in an emergency Fed rate hike. Two-year Treasury moves underscored the repricing of short-term policy chances.
$70,000 emerges as resistance for Bitcoin
Trader sentiment was cautious as BTC/USD hovered near its lowest levels in three weeks. Technical Crypto Analyst on Telegram, using four-hour charts, said a return to $64,000 looked “likely” after BTC broke an ascending trendline and began to print lower highs beneath the 70–72K supply zone.
“BTC has clearly broken its ascending trendline and is now showing lower highs under the 70–72K supply, confirming a short-term bearish shift; with price losing the 68K support, continuation toward the 64–65K demand zone is likely, and only a reclaim above 70K would invalidate the bearish momentum,” the resource told subscribers.
CoinGlass data highlighted the stakes for March’s monthly close: BTC was preparing for its first six straight months of losses since the end of the 2018 bear market.
“Indeed seeing the market derisking into the weekend as expected and as we’ve been seeing several weeks now,” trader Daan Crypto Trades wrote on X, pointing to the $65.6K low from last Monday as a key level with liquidity nearby. He said the range low would be his main area to watch.
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