Key takeaways:
– Over 90% of Bitcoin call options may expire worthless if BTC fails to break above $71,000 by Friday.
– Traders worry rising inflation and worsening credit conditions amid the US–Israel/Iran war could weigh on markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) has traded in a tight range between about $67,700 and $71,600 this past week, largely mirroring US equity moves amid geopolitical tensions. Market participants hope the $18.6 billion monthly Bitcoin options expiry on Friday could spark bullish momentum and push BTC above $75,000.
Calls dominate March’s open interest at $11.2 billion versus $7.4 billion in puts. Still, Bitcoin has not held above $74,000 for seven weeks, and concerns about persistent inflation have grown as WTI crude sits above $90, keeping pressure on risk assets.
Economic uncertainty may favor bears ahead of the quarterly expiry. Signs of stress surfaced when several private credit funds limited redemptions amid loan-quality worries, drawing attention to the $3 trillion sector after firms including Ares, Apollo, Blue Owl and Cliffwater restricted withdrawals.
Deribit leads with about 76% market share and $14.1 billion open interest, followed by OKX (7.1%) and CME (6.6%). Many bullish bets at Deribit were sized at $90,000 and above. Only roughly $2 billion of Deribit’s call open interest sits below $78,000, implying about 77% of those calls could expire worthless. If the expiry level is $71,000, an estimated 92% of call open interest would be invalidated. Some large call positions may date from when BTC was trading above $86,000 in February, explaining heavy positioning well above current prices.
On the put side, Deribit shows about $2.2 billion in open interest at $66,000 or higher, so roughly 40% of puts remain relevant for Friday’s expiry. At first glance puts hold a modest advantage, but outcomes depend on the actual settlement price.
Four likely settlement ranges at Deribit and the net result by instrument:
– $65,000–$69,000: net favors puts by ~$1.8 billion.
– $69,001–$72,000: net favors puts by ~$950 million.
– $72,001–$75,000: net favors puts by ~$430 million.
– $75,001–$78,000: net favors calls by ~$790 million.
From the current ~$70,900 level, Bitcoin needs about a 6% rally to flip the expiry outcome in bulls’ favor.
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