Bitcoin’s RSI is nearing a key level, with analysts saying a higher low is needed to support a potential continuation in BTC price.
Key points:
– Bitcoin RSI is approaching a critical long-term position for the fate of the bear market.
– RSI needs a weekly bullish divergence to repeat its early-2023 rebound.
– A trader says he is “not in a rush” to reenter the market with the comedown from all-time highs just a few months old.
Bitcoin (BTC) is signaling a potential long-term bottom as a key leading indicator prepares for a higher low.
New analysis of BTC/USD relative strength index (RSI) data suggests it could soon be “time to pay attention.” Historically, Bitcoin bear-market lows have often coincided with the start of a bullish divergence on weekly RSI charts. Trader Jelle sees current price action following those patterns and believes the next inflection point may be near.
“When $BTC’s weekly RSI makes a higher low again, it’s time to pay attention,” he wrote on X. A classic bullish divergence forms when RSI makes a higher low while price posts lower lows. Jelle adds that price can still move around while preserving the recovery: “Doesn’t matter if BTC makes a higher low, equal low, or lower low. When RSI starts moving higher again, the bottom is very close – or already in.”
Charts shared by Jelle show BTC’s weekly RSI approaching the area that preceded the 2023 rebound. That earlier flip to bullish on RSI came before a year-long period of upside, a rally that at the time also involved reclaiming the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) as support in March 2023.
The 200-week EMA, however, was lost again last month, with some analysts calling the trend line “unreliable.” Jelle notes that prior bear markets tended to last about a year; BTC peaked roughly 23 weeks ago, and he remains cautious. “I’m not in a rush to buy back in,” he told followers.
Separately, another chart highlighted a potential bear-flag pattern developing — a formation that could signal weakness and risk a fresh support break similar to January’s move.
This combination — RSI near a critical weekly low area and the possibility of a bearish continuation pattern — puts focus on whether weekly RSI can form a higher low (or at least begin rising). If it does, that would echo the setup that marked the prior cycle’s recovery. If RSI fails to turn up and price follows through on the bear-flag breakdown, downside risk would reassert itself.
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