Overview
Bitcoin has spent roughly 14 months underperforming gold, with the BTC/gold ratio and momentum indicators hitting levels that have historically signaled cycle lows.
Key takeaways
– The BTC/GOLD ratio is at multi-year lows, and several indicators point toward a potential cycle bottom.
– Maintaining the $68,000–$70,000 zone is critical to avoid a deeper pullback in the near term.
Momentum indicators flash classic reversal signs
TradingView data shows the BTC/GOLD ratio’s weekly RSI dropped to an oversold 21 in mid-February and has since recovered to about 33, indicating waning downside momentum. The MACD for the ratio has fallen to historically low readings and is approaching a bullish cross point.
Historically, similar RSI recoveries from deeply oversold readings combined with MACD buy signals have marked macro lows for the ratio. These prior bottoms preceded large Bitcoin surges—roughly 280%–620% in 2019, 2021, and 2023. The most recent trough vs. gold in November 2022 was followed by an approximately 700% Bitcoin rally to a reported peak near $126,000.
Cycle length and drawdown comparisons
Analysts at GeoMetric note the past three BTC/GOLD bear phases lasted about 12–14 months with drawdowns between 75% and 84%. The current cycle is near the 13-month mark with a decline of roughly 81%, which places it among the deeper recent corrections and supports the argument that a bottom may be forming.
Market commentators have picked up the pattern: recurring ~400-day bear cycles against gold, deeply oversold RSI readings, and subsequent recoveries. Some traders interpret the present configuration as consistent with those historical bottoms.
Price technicals: $68K–$70K is the line in the sand
On BTC/USD, the market remains tentatively bullish so long as the $68,000–$70,000 support band holds. That zone aligns with the 200-week exponential moving average and the 50-day simple moving average—key technical supports whose weekly close behavior often matters in bear phases.
One scenario traders are watching: if Bitcoin holds the weekly low area (around $68,800), a rebound toward $76,000–$80,000 becomes plausible. Some analysts expect an initial push toward $80,000 before another leg down toward $50,000 if momentum breaks. Conversely, losing the $68K–$70K band on a weekly close would increase the odds of a deeper retracement.
Practical note
These signals reflect historical patterns and technical readings, not guarantees. Markets can diverge from past behavior and indicators can give premature or false signals.
Risk disclosure
This content is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. All trading and investment decisions involve risk. Readers should perform their own research and consider their personal financial situation before acting. The information presented here is believed to be reliable but is not guaranteed accurate or complete; the author and publisher are not liable for any losses resulting from its use.