Bitcoin (BTC) broke its long-running tie to tech stocks as the US–Iran war entered its third week.
Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin is outperforming tech stocks amid the US–Iran war, suggesting growing demand as a geopolitical hedge.
– BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns BTC’s renewed upside could be a dead cat bounce.
BTC correlation with Nasdaq flips negative
On a 52-week rolling basis, BTC’s correlation with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) fell to -0.06, the lowest level since December 2018. That is a sharp reversal from multi-year correlations that ranged roughly 0.60–0.92.
The correlation turned negative in late February, around the time of US and Israeli strikes on Iran. Since Feb. 28, when the conflict escalated, BTC/USD has climbed more than 15% while the Nasdaq has slid about 2%.
This divergence indicates traders are increasingly treating Bitcoin as a geopolitical hedge rather than a pure tech-linked risk asset.
Why is Bitcoin decoupling from tech stocks?
A major driver appears to be Strategy’s aggressive BTC accumulation. Over the past two weeks, Michael Saylor’s company bought 40,331 BTC, partly funded by at-the-market (ATM) sales of its STRC preferred stock.
That purchasing pace was roughly 9–10 times the amount of Bitcoin mined in the same period, meaning demand outstripped new supply by a wide margin.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also added strength, drawing more than $12.22 billion in inflows—another substantial source of demand.
Stablecoin liquidity tied to Middle East flows has also risen during the war. USDC’s market cap climbed to about $79.57 billion from roughly $70 billion in early February, reportedly driven by demand in hubs such as Dubai. Higher USDC supply points to more dollar liquidity entering digital assets, supporting Bitcoin as Strategy’s buying tightened available supply.
Joe Consorti, head of growth at Bitcoin equity firm Horizon, said Bitcoin is passing its “geopolitical stress test,” and some macro models suggest prices could reach $100,000 in coming months.
Arthur Hayes warns of “dead cat bounce”
Not everyone believes Bitcoin has permanently decoupled from equities. In a March 5 post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warned the rally toward the mid-$70,000s could be a “dead cat bounce,” arguing that ongoing weakness in SaaS stocks amid tighter financial conditions could pull BTC lower.
Bitcoin remains more closely tied to U.S. SaaS names than to the broader Nasdaq. Unlike the diversified Nasdaq, SaaS companies—examples include Salesforce, Adobe, and Zoom—are high-growth, liquidity-sensitive assets that have tended to move with macro-driven risk sentiment similar to crypto.
Market signals reflect Hayes’s caution. The Coinbase Premium Index has stayed negative on a 30-day rolling basis, signaling weak U.S. spot demand and suggesting the recent rally hasn’t seen strong institutional follow-through.
Bitcoin’s pullback from the $76,000 resistance area, which also aligns with the upper trendline of a prevailing bear-flag pattern, increases the odds of a drop toward the lower trendline near $68,000. A decisive break below $68,000 could risk a fall toward a measured downside target around $51,000.
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