The Federal Open Market Committee announced it will maintain the target federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75%, citing ongoing uncertainty from the war in the Middle East and its potential macroeconomic effects.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said overall economic activity is growing at a solid clip, with consumer spending remaining resilient and business investment on the rise. At the same time, housing continues to be weak, the labor market is showing early signs of cooling, and inflation remains somewhat above the Fed’s 2% goal. Powell highlighted that higher energy prices tied to the conflict could push inflation up, but the ultimate scale and duration of those effects are still unclear.
Interest-rate policy affects financial markets: lower rates generally lift equities and cryptocurrencies by encouraging risk-taking, while higher rates tend to draw capital into government bonds. According to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, market participants currently assign about a 97% probability of no rate change at the April 2026 meeting and roughly a 3% chance of a 25-basis-point hike that would move the target range to 3.75–4.00%.
Commentators are divided on the outlook. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, says he plans to wait for rate cuts before increasing Bitcoin exposure and has suggested the conflict with Iran could influence the Fed toward easing to support broader fiscal or geopolitical financing needs. Macroeconomist Lyn Alden describes the Fed as entering a “gradual print” phase, meaning a slow expansion of money supply that supports higher asset prices over time.
This report reflects independent coverage of the FOMC decision. Readers are encouraged to verify details independently. For Cointelegraph’s editorial standards, see the publication’s Editorial Policy.