Bitcoin’s five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) has fallen below gold’s for only the second time in Bitcoin’s history, Fidelity Digital Assets reports, signaling an unusual moment for an asset long defined by outsized long-term returns. The crossover is notable not just for relative performance versus gold, but for what a slower growth profile may indicate about Bitcoin’s current market cycle.
Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright, in a Chart Chatter post on X, said Bitcoin’s five-year CAGR has trended lower as its price rose, producing a rare crossover. “What we are seeing now in early 2026 is Bitcoin’s CAGR falling below Gold’s 5-year CAGR for just the second time in Bitcoin’s history,” Wainwright said. “We have now seen three straight months to start the year of CAGR below Gold’s.”
That statistic is central to Fidelity’s framing. Bitcoin has spent most of its history ahead of gold on a five-year compounded basis, making the January break notable. The fact it persisted for three consecutive months gives the move more weight, particularly as Fidelity describes the period as a bear market.
Wainwright tied the last comparable episode to the end of the previous cycle. “Back in 2022, we saw one such month of this occurring in December 2022, when Bitcoin’s price was bottoming out in the bear market around $15,000,” he said. “We are now once again in a bear market and below that CAGR for a longer stretch this time of three months.”
Fidelity’s chart shows the five-year CAGR comparison and highlights the rarity of the crossover. While the drop below gold is uncommon, it did happen briefly at the 2022 cycle low; the difference now is duration—three straight months in early 2026 suggests a more sustained compression in Bitcoin’s long-term return profile.
Fidelity did not argue Bitcoin has lost its edge entirely. “Overall, Bitcoin has remained above Gold’s CAGR for the majority of its history,” Wainwright said. “So this is truly a unique instance and occurrence in Bitcoin, where it is now below the CAGR of Gold.”
Gold’s strong run also helps explain the shift. Spot gold closed at $2,156.61 per ounce on March 18, 2024, rose to $2,999.96 on March 18, 2025, and stood at $5,012.45 on March 17, 2026—about a 67.1% gain over one year and roughly 132.4% over two years. That surge lifts gold’s five-year CAGR and contributes to Bitcoin slipping under it.
The takeaway: across most of its history Bitcoin has outpaced gold on a five-year CAGR, but early 2026 produced a rare exception. Whether this proves to be a late-bear-market anomaly—as with the single month in late 2022—or an early sign of a more mature, slower-growth Bitcoin is the question Fidelity has posed to the market.
At press time, BTC traded at $74,015.
Featured image created with DALL·E; chart from TradingView.com.