Centralized cryptocurrency exchanges recorded a sharp jump in hourly Bitcoin inflows on March 16, a development analysts say could foreshadow selling pressure.
Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, said hourly BTC inflows into exchanges spiked to about 6,100 BTC on March 16 — the highest level since Feb. 20. He added that large transfers made up roughly 63% of total inflows, the biggest share since mid-October 2025.
The surge coincided with a roughly 12% rally in Bitcoin so far this month, which pushed prices to a six-week high near $76,000 on March 17. Traders often move coins onto exchanges when preparing to sell or convert to stablecoins, and Moreno cautioned that past episodes of significant large deposits to exchanges have tended to precede increased selling.
The inflow spike arrived just days before the Federal Reserve’s meeting and rate decision, an event that can sway crypto sentiment. Market pricing on CME FedWatch futures shows a 98.9% probability that US interest rates will remain unchanged this month and a 1.1% chance of a hike. The Associated Press has reported the Fed might also signal no rate cuts this year amid geopolitical strains and renewed inflation concerns.
Moreno also pointed to potential near-term resistance around $75,000, noting that this level aligns with the lower band of traders’ onchain Realized Price — a metric that has acted as resistance in past bear-market rallies. TradingView data showed BTC reached about $75,000 on Coinbase three times in the previous 24 hours and was rejected each time. The broader Realized Price, which reflects the average break-even level for active traders and served as resistance in October and January, is near $84,700.
(Reporting based on CryptoQuant, TradingView and market data; additional context from the Associated Press.)