Ether (ETH) bulls are targeting a return toward $2,800 in March, supported by three indicators suggesting further upside.
Key takeaways:
– Ether’s price jumped more than 9% toward $2,280 on Monday.
– Technicals and onchain data point to an extended rally that could reach roughly $2,800.
1) Bearish pattern invalidated; symmetrical-triangle setup
On Sunday, ETH’s price invalidated an apparent bear pennant on the daily chart, piercing the pennant’s upper trend line at $2,100 and rising 9.8% to a six-week high of $2,287 on Monday. The breakout came with higher trading volume, signaling conviction.
The price reclaimed the 20-day EMA ($2,072) and 50-day EMA ($2,210), increasing the odds of a bullish symmetrical-triangle reversal. A measured move above the triangle’s upper trend line points to about $2,850 — roughly 26% above the then-current price — which aligns with the 200-day EMA. The next resistance to clear is the 100-day EMA near $2,500; rejection there would weaken the breakout and raise pullback risk.
2) Onchain supply and realized-price bands cap upside around $2,800
ETH has been oscillating within a range defined by a realized price near $2,350 and the lowest MVRV band around $1,650. The recent rebound off the lowest MVRV band mirrors Q2 2022 structure, where price rallied past the realized price before being rejected by the first MVRV band. That first MVRV band sits near $2,650, which could halt the recovery.
Glassnode’s Entity-Adjusted URPD shows a dense supply zone at $2,770–$2,880 where more than 7.9 million ETH were acquired and which is maturing into long-term holder supply—an overhang likely to exert sell pressure around $2,800. ETH’s cost-basis heatmap also shows heavy accumulation near $2,800 (over 3 million ETH), suggesting a plausible target in the near term.
3) Market sentiment: Polymarket odds shift bullish for March
Polymarket contracts show a bullish shift: traders assign 13% odds that ETH reaches $2,800 in March (up about 10 percentage points in 24 hours). Probabilities for $2,600 and $2,400 in March are higher at 32% and 69%, respectively. Conversely, odds for $1,800 and $1,600 have declined, indicating trimmed downside expectations.
This combination of technical breakout, concentrated onchain supply near $2,800, and rising bullish market odds supports the view that $2,800 is a logical near-term target, while resistance around $2,650–$2,880 could cap gains and invite profit-taking.
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