After reaching an all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a deep correction, slipping to around $60,000 in early February. XWIN Research Japan says the recent bearish months represent a structural re-evaluation for the leading cryptocurrency.
Using CryptoQuant data and charts from founder Ki Young Ju, XWIN highlights two on-chain metrics—Bitcoin exchange reserves and ETF inflows—to assess supply and demand. Exchange reserves have steadily declined since 2024, suggesting holders prefer private storage over selling. That reduction in available supply, paired with sustained demand, helped drive a price gain of over 200% in the period leading to the ATH.
Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been a major demand driver, accumulating $55.37 billion in net inflows and $87.07 billion in net assets within two years of launch. However, after the peak, these ETFs saw a pullback: SoSoValue reports about $6.38 billion in net outflows between November and February, a drop in institutional demand that contributed to the correction. XWIN frames the Spot ETF as a structural factor in the market cycle.
Recently, ETF outflows have stabilized. Large net outflows paused as many institutional players appear to have completed portfolio rebalancing; the last two trading weeks produced combined net inflows of $1.36 billion. XWIN Research Japan describes the market as being in a supply-demand rebalancing phase and notes that a sustained return of ETF inflows would be needed to clarify a renewed directional bias.
Price snapshot: Bitcoin is trading around $67,372, up about 4.34% over the past month.
Sources: XWIN Research Japan analysis, CryptoQuant charts (Ki Young Ju), SoSoValue, TradingView.
