Prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are exploring fundraising rounds that could value each company at about $20 billion, roughly double their most recent valuations, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Discussions with potential investors are preliminary and may not lead to deals or the targeted valuations.
Kalshi operates in the United States, offering markets on sports, politics, the economy and cultural events. The company was last valued at about $11 billion in December after raising $1 billion from investors including Paradigm and Sequoia Capital. Founded in 2018 by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, Kalshi won Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval in 2020 to operate as a regulated exchange for event-based markets. The platform has expanded rapidly and recently surpassed a $1 billion revenue run rate, with some estimates nearer $1.5 billion.
Polymarket, launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, remains inaccessible to U.S. users without a virtual private network but plans to introduce a regulated domestic version later this year. The company was valued at roughly $9 billion in October after Intercontinental Exchange, owner of the New York Stock Exchange, agreed to invest up to $2 billion.
Both platforms have drawn scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators. U.S. Democratic lawmakers are drafting legislation to regulate prediction markets after suspiciously timed bets on the timing of U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran raised insider-trading concerns. Senator Chris Murphy alleged that individuals close to the White House may have used advance knowledge to place bets, noting several Polymarket accounts reportedly made about $1 million by wagering just hours before explosions were reported in Tehran.
Polymarket has faced multiple insider-trading allegations. A small group of crypto wallets reportedly made more than $1.2 million betting on a market tied to an on-chain investigation into DeFi platform Axiom shortly before blockchain investigator ZachXBT published related claims. In a separate incident, another Polymarket account reportedly earned about $400,000 after placing a large wager on the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before the news became public.