Macroeconomist Lyn Alden said she would bet on Bitcoin outperforming gold in the next two to three years, citing recent dynamics between the two assets and shifting investor sentiment. Speaking on the New Era Finance podcast, Alden said, “If I had to bet Bitcoin versus gold over the next two to three years, I would bet Bitcoin,” adding, “Gun to my head, if I had to say which one I think outperforms, I would say Bitcoin.”
Alden framed the relationship between gold and Bitcoin as a pendulum that can swing between the two. After gold’s strong rally, she suggested the usual diminishing-return pattern per cycle might be reset in the coming cycle, implying an opportunity for Bitcoin to outpace gold’s returns.
Industry figures including Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong have projected dramatic upside for Bitcoin, with some predicting it could reach $1 million by 2030 as clearer U.S. regulation emerges and sets an example for other G20 nations.
Alden dismissed the idea that gold is in a bubble, calling current sentiment “somewhat euphoric” after gold reached a new reported high in January. She noted sentiment measures differ sharply between the assets: the JM Bullion gold Fear and Greed Index showed “Greed” at 72 out of 100, while the Crypto Fear and Greed Index registered “Extreme Fear” at 18 out of 100. Alden said sentiment toward Bitcoin is “somewhat unfairly negative,” pointing to Bitcoin’s trading level and its drop from a recent all-time high.
She cautioned against rigid narratives about their relationship: “I try to be hesitant about reading into how absolute these things are. Gold and Bitcoin can go up together, they can go down together.”
Debate among investors continues. Billionaire Ray Dalio recently warned against viewing Bitcoin as a long-term safe-haven store of value, citing lack of central bank backing and concerns about privacy and quantum resistance. Dalio emphasized gold’s long-standing role as a reserve asset held by central banks.
At the same time, some analysts note rising correlation between the two assets as both gain attention as hedges against macroeconomic uncertainty. The evolving regulatory and macro backdrop, shifting sentiment, and competing narratives will shape whether Bitcoin can indeed outperform gold through 2029.
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