War in the Middle East failed to push Bitcoin (BTC) below the $63,000 area, and buyers appear to be stepping in to defend higher levels as the market attempts to hold above roughly $69,000. A quick, sharp recovery is unlikely; macro newsletter Ecoinometrics warned that deep drawdowns tend to unfold slowly and urged “patience rather than urgency.”
Bitwise Europe head of research André Dragosch highlighted that investors who buy and hold BTC for at least three years see the probability of loss fall to about 0.70%. Although BTC sits roughly 50% below its all-time high, its three-to-five-year realized price of $34,780 implies many long-term holders remain well in profit.
BitMEX co‑founder Arthur Hayes noted a historical pattern: U.S. military actions in the Middle East since 1985 have been followed by monetary expansion from the Federal Reserve. If the current conflict prolongs, similar Fed action becomes more likely, a factor traders are watching.
Below are technical views on the S&P 500, the U.S. dollar, Bitcoin and nine major altcoins to assess whether buyers can push prices above key resistances.
S&P 500 Index (SPX)
The S&P 500 trades between support at 6,775 and resistance at 7,002, showing buying on dips and selling into rallies. The longer price remains in this range, the more powerful the eventual breakout may be. A break below 6,775 would indicate bears have the edge and could lead to a deeper correction toward 6,550. To resume the uptrend, the index needs to clear and hold above 7,002, with a potential run to 7,290 after that.
US Dollar Index (DXY)
DXY has climbed above the 50-day simple moving average (97.91), signaling strong bullish demand. The index could advance to 99.50 and then test resistance at 100.54, where selling is expected. A close above 100.54 would suggest a new uptrend. The bullish case is invalidated if DXY falls below the 20-day EMA (97.67), which could open a slide toward the 96.21–95.55 support zone.
Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC has formed a symmetrical triangle, reflecting equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Bulls are trying to push BTC above the triangle’s resistance. If they succeed, BTC/USDT may climb toward the prior breakdown level near $74,508, and a close above that would be an early sign the $60,000 area was a cycle low. If BTC fails at $74,508 and drops below the 20-day EMA, price may remain range-bound between $60,000 and $74,508.
Ether (ETH)
ETH remains range-bound between $1,750 and $2,111, a tug-of-war between bulls and bears. A daily close above $2,111 would give bulls control, potentially driving ETH to the 50-day SMA (~$2,427) and then toward $3,045. If ETH is rejected at $2,111 and falls below $1,750, bears would likely push toward $1,537.
XRP
XRP is struggling to clear the 20-day EMA (~$1.42), but persistent buying pressure is a constructive sign. A move above the 20-day EMA could lift XRP to the 50-day SMA (~$1.63) and the downtrend line; a close above the downtrend line would suggest a trend change. Failure around the EMA and a break below the support line would favor bears, with $1.11 as the next support and $1.00 at risk if that fails.
BNB
BNB has traded in a $570–$670 range, showing accumulation at lower levels. The 20-day EMA (~$633) is flattening and the RSI is rising, indicating diminishing selling pressure. A push above $670 could send BNB toward the 50-day SMA (~$742). Conversely, sellers will try to defend $670 and could drag price below $570; a break there would likely target psychological support at $500.
Solana (SOL)
Buyers have nudged SOL above the 20-day EMA (~$86), showing demand at lower levels. Sellers may defend $95, but if bulls prevail SOL could rally to $117, which would hint at a short-term bottom. If SOL is rejected at resistance, price may continue to oscillate between $76 and $95. A break below $76 would open the path back down to $67.
Dogecoin (DOGE)
DOGE has been moving between the 20-day EMA (~$0.10) and support at $0.09. If $0.09 breaks, DOGE could retest the Feb. 6 low near $0.08; buyers are likely to defend $0.08, but a close beneath it could ignite a drop to $0.06. A bullish sign would be a decisive move above the 20-day EMA, which could target the breakdown level at $0.12.
Bitcoin Cash (BCH)
Buyers are trying to keep BCH above $443, but downward-sloping moving averages and an RSI near oversold raise the odds of a further breakdown. Minor support at $423 could fail, exposing a decline to $377. Any rally from $443 would likely meet selling at the moving averages; bulls need a clear break above the 50-day SMA (~$546) to regain control.
Cardano (ADA)
ADA remains in a descending channel, with bears in command. Sustained trading below the 20-day EMA (~$0.28) would let sellers aim for $0.25 and then the channel’s lower support. A strong rebound from the channel support could keep ADA range-bound inside the channel for longer. Bulls must push and hold price above the downtrend line to signal a potential reversal, which could open a move toward $0.43.
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