One of Nasdaq’s options venues, Nasdaq MRX, has filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to offer cash‑settled, binary-style contracts tied to the Nasdaq‑100 Index, joining a broader wave of Wall Street firms exploring prediction-market products.
In the filing, Nasdaq describes “Outcome Related Options” as yes‑or‑no contracts priced between $0.01 and $1.00. The contracts would allow traders to take binary positions on events linked to the Nasdaq‑100 and Nasdaq‑100 Micro indexes only, not on sports, cultural, or political outcomes. Notable components of the Nasdaq‑100 include Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Google (Alphabet), Meta and Tesla.
If approved by the SEC, Nasdaq’s offering would enter a growing market alongside established prediction platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi, and emerging efforts by crypto exchanges including Coinbase and Crypto.com. Other major market operators — Intercontinental Exchange, CME Group and Cboe Global Markets — have also signaled interest or investment in prediction-market style products. CME’s partnership with FanDuel aims to enable markets outside traditional finance, while Cboe’s planned products are expected to focus on finance and economic contracts.
Asset managers are moving in as well. Bitwise filed to launch “PredictionShares” ETFs that would hold event contracts tied to the 2028 U.S. presidential election; GraniteShares and Roundhill made similar filings earlier. Prediction markets surged in crypto last year, regularly surpassing $10 billion in monthly trading volume, and platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have actively marketed to retail users even as some regulators have sought constraints.
Nasdaq intends to offer Outcome‑Related Options across multiple Nasdaq options exchanges, including MRX, NOM and PHLX. MRX operates on a first‑come, first‑served basis and does not pay trading incentives, whereas NOM and PHLX use pricing models that can reward participants for adding liquidity.
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